Why the current unemployment rate is as phony as are the qualifications of some who would be president.

by Jim Clifton

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Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemploymentis "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.

There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find -- in other words, you are severely underemployed -- the government doesn't count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this. . . . . . . . . . . Read the full report from Gallup, here.  

Note:  click on our tag,  below,  "Unemployment report," for more information on the same subject. 

The truth about Obama's claim of 10 million jobs and the "sharpest recover in American history."

In an article out of the National Review, here,   Ryan Lovelace exposes the fact that over the course of the Obama years,  alone, 5.46 million work permits have been given to issued by Central Planning.  In a CBS interview,  two months ago  (November of 2014),  Obama claimed 10 million jobs created during his time as president.  As Obama Hyperbole would have it,  this is the fastest job creation in the history of mankind,  or some such comparison. 

Problem:  During the recent recession,  our economy lost 8.7 million jobs  (per CNN) .  Taking this numbers into the discussion,  the net gain,  "jobs created versus jobs lost," is 1.3 million to Obama's favor.  In other words,  using only two contrasting numbers,  the recovery can [only] account for a meager 1.3 million jobs over the course of the past 6 years.  But this is not "full disclosure" as to the lie Obama wants you to believe.  

There is the matter of "workforce size."  It is 9+ million folks smaller than during the sixth year of Bush   . . . . .    9 million fewer people working and Bush had two economic disasters to deal with during his eight years:  the destruction of the Twin Towers on "9/11" (that was the financial capitol of the world,  folks),   and the 2008 recession caused by Affordable Housing policies.  Understand this,  the workforce averaged above 65% for all of 2009.  Then,  the bottom began falling out from under this Administration.  Today, as I write,  it is at 62.7%,  a near-40 year low.

You should know that 2.5 million of the "9+," are Americans who can work,  but have given up the search and no longer qualify for unemployment assistance.  The remaining 7 million?  Some retired,  others went on disability and others moved into the working "underground,"  where they work to survive but do not report their income.  

Now,  if I have not taken you all,  too far into the weeds,  with all these numbers,  you know that comparing Obama's claim of "10 million jobs created" is wholly offset by the workforce exodus of 2.5 million folks, coupled with the number of jobs lost during the recession.  He is at or a bit to the negative side of Zero.  

Conclusion:  Ask yourselves this question - "If the truth as to net - net job creation is 'zero,'  what is the impact of the additional 5.4 million immigrants who have been granted work permits?"  

I do not have an answer except to argue that this additional immigrant workforce actually adds to the population of unemployed.  If 2.5 million available and unretired Americans are no longer counted in the workforce,  that fact is made worse with the inclusion of the increasing immigrant population.   Clearly, the 5.4 million immigrant workers coming into our economy,  are NOT working, for the most part and  remain unemployed.  As an unintended consequence of Obama's immigration policy, then,   is the increasing population of those,  within our borders,  who must depend on government assistance,  and now you all know,  why I think this man is an absolutely buffoon when it comes to corporate leadership.  

A word of correction/caution:  The Right,  far too often,  puts out that "all jobs created by Obama went to the immigrant population."    Go here,  for an example.  Also know that Rick Santorum is making this same claim.   

I am "Right,"  but I must tell the readership that this bit of propaganda is as wrong-headed as "wrong" can be   . . . . .   simply untrue,  on par with Obama's claim that he has created 10 million jobs.  It assumes that all of the 5.4 immigrants given work permits since Obama took office,  are working    . . .   ALL are working.  Seriously,  no one who thinks for a moment,  can believe this number,  even before available research can be revealed.  It is a silly-bordering-on-stupid claim.

Takeaway.  The takeaway of this post is rather straight forward:   it seems as if everybody is lying.   Obama can't seem to give a speech of any kind,  without offering up a lie or making use of misleading information;  but the hard Right is guilty,  far too often,  of doing the same thing.  

  

Jobs report: The hourly wage number is decreasing, the financial stress on small businesses is increasing, and the middle class is shrinking, all due to the driving influence of ObamaCare.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 436,766 in the week ending January 19, a decrease of 119,944 from the previous week but 20,000 higher than this time last year.  There were 416,880 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.  (see the DoL report, here)

Understand that the “seasonally adjusted” number is always an unreal number,  that allows those who publish such nonsense,  to mitigate the highs and lows of the real numbers.  

In this case,  for example,  the seasonally adjusted first time claims number for last week is 330,000  (for week ending Jan 19, 2013).   The actual number of folks walking into a claims office is 436,766  [claims processed  during last week] or,  106,000 more than the make-believe "seasonally adjusted" count.  

Further,  and in this case,  the two numbers present a vastly different reality.  The adjusted number shows a jobs economy that is trending upwards while the real numbers show a jobs economy that is 20,000 jobs poorer than in January of 2012 . . . .  and somewhat static. 

The fact is we are far from where we need to be in order to seriously applaud the current situation.  We have fewer job positions filled than a year ago,  and,  to make matters worse, if the workforce was as large as when Obama took office (2009), unemployment would be 10.5 % and underemployment would be 14.2% .  8.8 million fewer Americans are being counted in the unemployment figures.  These people are not working and have no hope for change,  anytime soon.  

Because of ObamaCare,  the hope of an improving jobs market carries this caveat:  a huge percentage of all  "added  jobs"  are part-time  (under 30 hours per week) to make up for the reduction in full time employment.  

  

Thousands of jobs are being created to account for the new, part time positions.  The hourly wage number is decreasing,  the financial stress on small businesses is increasing,  and the middle class is shrinking,  all due to the driving influence of ObamaCare.  

Thanks,  Democrats,  for nothing but misery and hard times.  What started as a recessionary cycle,  in the last two years of Bush,  is now a way of life,  under H Obama. 

The weekly new benefit applications for the recently unemployed is trending up, again.

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 371,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 359,000. 

Understand that target number for a "healthy" economy is 300,000/325,000 new claims per week.  We have been stuck at 370,000 (nominally) to 400,000 since late 2008,  making this the longest "recovery" in American history.  

New unemployment application numbers are out: 402,000 again. What does it mean?

The numbers referenced in our headline are those belonging to the previous week, last week. 402,000 is down from an adjusted 404,000 the week before last.

"400,000" has been the order of the day for 27 of the past 29 weeks and 162 of the past 171 weeks, taking us back into 2008 and before the presidential elections.

You should know that the magic number representing job growth is approximately 370,000 new claims per week. It is at this point that the downward trend intersects the upward movement and "job growth" begins. During the Clinton years, known for its "good time, rock and roll" economy, the average weekly new-claims statistic was approximately 340,000, judging from information on this chart.

As a layman, carpenter/biker/hillbilly, educated-Okie, really old dude, I have found that "370,000" is one of the more consistent numbers in the arena of economic prognostication.

Conclusion: we remain on a flat trajectory as to the jobs market, but very close to a true state of recovery as we typically measure jobs and the economy.

Numbers to watch, "magic" numbers that forecast a true recovery, include "370,000" per week for first time benefit claims and a GDP of "2.5 " for four consecutive quarters (and we just had our first 2.5 quarter with the recent 3rd quarter report, yesterday). Understand that GDP for all of 2009, 2010, and the first two quarters of 2011 was 1.4 or less, on average . . . . a terrible, near recession, set of numbers. Note: the GDP for the first two quarters of this year was .9%.

One final point: only the most mindless of partisans will claim that any of this is the result of Obama's policies. Why? Because those policies were put into motion so many years ago that they have run out of funds, and, thus, no longer carry any economic influence.

No, the good news that sits in the shadows, is the result of a thoroughly resilient, capitalist authored, economy.

Why do you think Obama has left off "Pass this now" and has moved to the rhetorical strategy of "I can't wait for congress to act?" Why ? Because he has folks within his Administration, like Timothy Geithner, who are telling him, "the economy is about to go positive." Obama is frantically working on developing a "history" to which he can point and say, "See, I did it !!"

He has recently acted unilaterally - like a dictator - to offer help to the homeowner and student populations. Before you get too excited about Obama's efforts, in these areas, you should know that students will receive only 5 to 8 dollars a month in aid; 30 dollars a month benefit to homeowners, as a result of these new programs. Smoke and mirrors is what is going on, but a sly campaign strategy, as well. Don't believe me? Read the e-journal at The Atlantic, here for confirmation.

Understand that Obama knows nothing about economics or running a business. Heck, he doesn't even have a good definition for "middle class." His solutions were instituted so long ago, that a recovering economy only proves that we never needed this man's academic theories nor his One World, communal politic. In terms of "recovery," he has proven himself to be irrelevant.

Administration caught in a lie, filing a report on new unemployment claims without the factual reporting of 9 states !!

Benefits claims for two weeks ago were 472,000, down 2,000 from the week before. Some 39 economist gathered information necessary for making a prediction for this past week's new claims and came up with as low as 470,000 and as high as 486,00.

Well, the new number reported was 451,00, much lower than expected. We did not report this yesterday -- there was no reason to believe the report; nothing in the various summaries was predictive of such a positive downturn.

Turns out, we were given a bit of a confirmation: today we learn that the number was a made up number. Because of the the Labor Day Weekend, 9 states of the Union, did not report so their figures were estimated by the states themselves. The 9 include: Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and Virginia and Washington D.C.

It is not known why the Government's release was not accompanied by a caveat of some sort.