Jobs report: The hourly wage number is decreasing, the financial stress on small businesses is increasing, and the middle class is shrinking, all due to the driving influence of ObamaCare.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 436,766 in the week ending January 19, a decrease of 119,944 from the previous week but 20,000 higher than this time last year.  There were 416,880 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.  (see the DoL report, here)

Understand that the “seasonally adjusted” number is always an unreal number,  that allows those who publish such nonsense,  to mitigate the highs and lows of the real numbers.  

In this case,  for example,  the seasonally adjusted first time claims number for last week is 330,000  (for week ending Jan 19, 2013).   The actual number of folks walking into a claims office is 436,766  [claims processed  during last week] or,  106,000 more than the make-believe "seasonally adjusted" count.  

Further,  and in this case,  the two numbers present a vastly different reality.  The adjusted number shows a jobs economy that is trending upwards while the real numbers show a jobs economy that is 20,000 jobs poorer than in January of 2012 . . . .  and somewhat static. 

The fact is we are far from where we need to be in order to seriously applaud the current situation.  We have fewer job positions filled than a year ago,  and,  to make matters worse, if the workforce was as large as when Obama took office (2009), unemployment would be 10.5 % and underemployment would be 14.2% .  8.8 million fewer Americans are being counted in the unemployment figures.  These people are not working and have no hope for change,  anytime soon.  

Because of ObamaCare,  the hope of an improving jobs market carries this caveat:  a huge percentage of all  "added  jobs"  are part-time  (under 30 hours per week) to make up for the reduction in full time employment.  

  

Thousands of jobs are being created to account for the new, part time positions.  The hourly wage number is decreasing,  the financial stress on small businesses is increasing,  and the middle class is shrinking,  all due to the driving influence of ObamaCare.  

Thanks,  Democrats,  for nothing but misery and hard times.  What started as a recessionary cycle,  in the last two years of Bush,  is now a way of life,  under H Obama. 

The weekly new benefit applications for the recently unemployed is trending up, again.

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 371,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 359,000. 

Understand that target number for a "healthy" economy is 300,000/325,000 new claims per week.  We have been stuck at 370,000 (nominally) to 400,000 since late 2008,  making this the longest "recovery" in American history.  

Unemployment for the month of November: Gallup has it at 8.3%; Obama's government run Department of Labor has it dropping to 7.7%. Here are some facts:

The labor force participation fell by two tenths of a percent to 63.6% of the available or potential work force  (folks 16 years and older and able to work).  In hard numbers,  this total represents a loss 540,000 people.  Without this loss in manpower,  the current unemployment rate would be unchanged at  7.9%,  using Obama's DoL numbers. 

(I, your humble educated Okie pundit,  have found that “256,000” is a number that works well with a .1% change in the larger unemployment number.  For every 256,000 Americans who are added or taken from the “work force,”  the nation experiences a .1% change in the larger statistic).

Unemployment:  Improving or stagnate? You decide.

Add to the nominal number of 8 million Americans who are no longer working and no longer being counted in the unemployment totals  (!!!!) a total of 8.8 on disability,  and the situation becomes quite bleak.  If we counted just the 8 million drop-outs,   To demonstrate just how bad the unemployment circumstance really is,  divided 8 million by 256,000 and you have added more than 31 points to the unemployment totals.  That’s’ right,  I am saying that if we counted the 8 million “lost” Americans no longer being counted in the weekly or monthly unemployment reports,  total unemployment would be 39.1 percent.  

To make  matters worse,  8 million Americans are now “part-time” employed.  That number could  more than double,  in my blue collar opinion,  within the coming year(s)  because of the ObamaCare “loophole”  that allows employers to avoid ObamaCare requirements for part-time employees.  

Construction and manufacturing numbers fell during the past month  -  perhaps the most discouraging indicator of all.  The keys to rising employment rates is not found in Central Government planning,  or federally sponsored research,  or Big Labor's demands for higher pay and special treatment.     

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Go to ZeroHedge for a qualified second opinion.   

Like I said,  Gallup has the unemployment rate at 8.3%

The economy is not "stagnant," it is dead -- again.

The AP is carrying a story,  today  (July 2),  that is the forebearer of continuing  bad news.  In January of this year,  there was the hope and the claim that the economy was growing after four years of very poor performance.  GDP was announced as being 2.2% and the monthly "jobs created" report was at 230,000.  Today,  six months later,  jobs creation has fallen to 60,000 per month,  not enough to keep up with population growth;  GDP,  touted to be 2.2%,  has been adjusted downward for the first half of the year,  to a miserable 1%  -  a number that puts the nation in the beginnings of a true and second recession.  

And things are not looking good for the near future.  Manufacturing numbers came out today,  and they are at a three year low.  Driving this downward trend are "new orders"  as a measure of consumer confidence,  fell to a shocking 10 year low.

Let's not forget that admitted unemployment rose from 8.1 to 8.2 percent,  last month.  No modern day sitting president has been re-elected with such numbers.