"400,000" has been the order of the day for 27 of the past 29 weeks and 162 of the past 171 weeks, taking us back into 2008 and before the presidential elections.
You should know that the magic number representing job growth is approximately 370,000 new claims per week. It is at this point that the downward trend intersects the upward movement and "job growth" begins. During the Clinton years, known for its "good time, rock and roll" economy, the average weekly new-claims statistic was approximately 340,000, judging from information on this chart.
As a layman, carpenter/biker/hillbilly, educated-Okie, really old dude, I have found that "370,000" is one of the more consistent numbers in the arena of economic prognostication.
Conclusion: we remain on a flat trajectory as to the jobs market, but very close to a true state of recovery as we typically measure jobs and the economy.
Numbers to watch, "magic" numbers that forecast a true recovery, include "370,000" per week for first time benefit claims and a GDP of "2.5 " for four consecutive quarters (and we just had our first 2.5 quarter with the recent 3rd quarter report, yesterday). Understand that GDP for all of 2009, 2010, and the first two quarters of 2011 was 1.4 or less, on average . . . . a terrible, near recession, set of numbers. Note: the GDP for the first two quarters of this year was .9%.
One final point: only the most mindless of partisans will claim that any of this is the result of Obama's policies. Why? Because those policies were put into motion so many years ago that they have run out of funds, and, thus, no longer carry any economic influence.
No, the good news that sits in the shadows, is the result of a thoroughly resilient, capitalist authored, economy.
Why do you think Obama has left off "Pass this now" and has moved to the rhetorical strategy of "I can't wait for congress to act?" Why ? Because he has folks within his Administration, like Timothy Geithner, who are telling him, "the economy is about to go positive." Obama is frantically working on developing a "history" to which he can point and say, "See, I did it !!"
He has recently acted unilaterally - like a dictator - to offer help to the homeowner and student populations. Before you get too excited about Obama's efforts, in these areas, you should know that students will receive only 5 to 8 dollars a month in aid; 30 dollars a month benefit to homeowners, as a result of these new programs. Smoke and mirrors is what is going on, but a sly campaign strategy, as well. Don't believe me? Read the e-journal at The Atlantic, here for confirmation.
Understand that Obama knows nothing about economics or running a business. Heck, he doesn't even have a good definition for "middle class." His solutions were instituted so long ago, that a recovering economy only proves that we never needed this man's academic theories nor his One World, communal politic. In terms of "recovery," he has proven himself to be irrelevant.
