Showing posts with label phony numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label phony numbers. Show all posts

Gallup claims 52% of Republicans blame Bush for the crisis we are experiencing today. Here is why that is funny/bogus.


New Gallup poll shows that Bush is blamed for the current economic crisis,  after 3 years of failure on the part of Obama,  by a margin of 68% to 52%.

Understand that I never post a partisan poll without first, reviewing the methodological statements used to justify the polling data.  Public Policy Polling,  for example, is seldom used by me because of its consistent “stacking” principle,  more than often stacking the opinion of the poll with a 58/45 split,  Democrats to Republicans.  

When I went to the Gallup section justifying its poll,  it had closed one page of information and failed to give even a hint at how the poll’s demographics were figured.  The poll was 40/60 cell phone versus land lines, and only one question was reproduced,  question number 15.  Usually, a group of two, three or four questions are related to each other.  We were denied that information.  In 5 years of blogging,  I have seldom seen such incompetence in the offering of polling information. 

When a poll fails to presents its “justification,”  polling results,  if extreme,  can give insight into the bias of the particular poll.  Those of us who are conservative (me) or “Republican,”  know full well that 52% of Republicans do not blame Bush primarily,  for the crisis we are now witnessing,  in 2012. 

 Gallups tells us:   Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers, cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

We all know that 68% of Democrats were born in the month of June**,  which gives insight as to the bias of this Gallup poll. 

** Source:  Scatological Studies in Digital Programming,  author,  May B. Faux,  June 16, 2011.  

Administration caught in a lie, filing a report on new unemployment claims without the factual reporting of 9 states !!

Benefits claims for two weeks ago were 472,000, down 2,000 from the week before. Some 39 economist gathered information necessary for making a prediction for this past week's new claims and came up with as low as 470,000 and as high as 486,00.

Well, the new number reported was 451,00, much lower than expected. We did not report this yesterday -- there was no reason to believe the report; nothing in the various summaries was predictive of such a positive downturn.

Turns out, we were given a bit of a confirmation: today we learn that the number was a made up number. Because of the the Labor Day Weekend, 9 states of the Union, did not report so their figures were estimated by the states themselves. The 9 include: Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and Virginia and Washington D.C.

It is not known why the Government's release was not accompanied by a caveat of some sort.