You should know that inversion (2 year bond yield higher than the 10 year bond yeild)does not always predict "recession." But when it does, recession - on average - is 22 months into the future. Sorry Libs, but a recession will not dethrone our President . . . . all this according to the wonks on Fox Business News amd CNBC.
Update: You should know that we average a recession every seven years. In other words, we are due, but the economy is strong (while the rest of the world is struggling), and in this historic "strength cycle," the Market serves as a hedge against an immediate recession.
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Recession . . . . the truth.
The last five times two year Treasuries dropped below 10 Year Treasury Yields, we entered into a recession at some point time. This is known as an "inversion."
Will this affect the 2020 elections? We don't know. You should be aware of the fact that the 2008 Collapse was preceded by an inversion in 2007, more than a year before the 2008 September Collapse. Excluding September of 2008, most of the remaining inversion events saw minor recesionary periods. In fact, 1966 to 1982, the Yield Curve was inverted 37% of the time and in everyone of those years, bank earnings went up (the very opposite of a recession).
Most financiers on Fox Business believe today's Market Event (down 600/700 points) still fall within a "normal cycle." Understand that Big Banking is very strong in spite of short term problems.
Let's not panic. International Trade does not fund our banking industry. Rather, bank funding is "domestic" in nature (10 trillion dollar in existing loan dollars).
My information comes from Fox Business , btw.
Update: Jim Acosta told CNN viewers that these inversion events are dependable predictors of coming reeceission. Of course, we know that when a recession follows an inversion event, there is a time-lapse of months, even years, before a looming recession strikes. Secondly, if a recession is not the result of a housing collapse (as per 2008), there is good reason to believe that that recession will not be a serious/crippling event. Third, there are many inversion events that do not end in recession. Julia Chatterley, a CNN reporter and colleague of Acosta's, told her morning audience on MSNBC, Wednesday, that inversion events do not always end in recession. She knows this . . . . Jim Acosta does not.
Again, the partisan/globalist Left and people like Jim Acosta, will push this idea of an immediate recession until it happens . . . . with the hope of defeating Trump in that event.
Will this affect the 2020 elections? We don't know. You should be aware of the fact that the 2008 Collapse was preceded by an inversion in 2007, more than a year before the 2008 September Collapse. Excluding September of 2008, most of the remaining inversion events saw minor recesionary periods. In fact, 1966 to 1982, the Yield Curve was inverted 37% of the time and in everyone of those years, bank earnings went up (the very opposite of a recession).
Most financiers on Fox Business believe today's Market Event (down 600/700 points) still fall within a "normal cycle." Understand that Big Banking is very strong in spite of short term problems.
Let's not panic. International Trade does not fund our banking industry. Rather, bank funding is "domestic" in nature (10 trillion dollar in existing loan dollars).
My information comes from Fox Business , btw.
Update: Jim Acosta told CNN viewers that these inversion events are dependable predictors of coming reeceission. Of course, we know that when a recession follows an inversion event, there is a time-lapse of months, even years, before a looming recession strikes. Secondly, if a recession is not the result of a housing collapse (as per 2008), there is good reason to believe that that recession will not be a serious/crippling event. Third, there are many inversion events that do not end in recession. Julia Chatterley, a CNN reporter and colleague of Acosta's, told her morning audience on MSNBC, Wednesday, that inversion events do not always end in recession. She knows this . . . . Jim Acosta does not.
Again, the partisan/globalist Left and people like Jim Acosta, will push this idea of an immediate recession until it happens . . . . with the hope of defeating Trump in that event.
Yellen brings a little sanity to the dicussion of our Economy.
Janet Yellen: US 'most likely' not entering recession, but odds 'have clearly risen'
Yellen, a past Fed Chairwoman, is a fovorite of this blog. And, her comments are critically important, especially if they prove to corrent. Expect to see forcasts of "recession" as the campaign season continues. Nothing is more desirable to a Progressive Trump Hater than to see "recession" raise its ugly head.
As a novice reporter, I do not believe that a recession, should it happen, will be strong enough to reverse hiring trends, nor will it be strong enough to be considered as a "financial collapse."
Note: A recession is said to exist when the nation experiences two consecutive negative quarters in terms of GDP. "Near recession" is a prolonged period of 1.8 or less. Obama's economy averaged 1.6% per year for the entire 8 years of his time as President.
Yellen, a past Fed Chairwoman, is a fovorite of this blog. And, her comments are critically important, especially if they prove to corrent. Expect to see forcasts of "recession" as the campaign season continues. Nothing is more desirable to a Progressive Trump Hater than to see "recession" raise its ugly head.
As a novice reporter, I do not believe that a recession, should it happen, will be strong enough to reverse hiring trends, nor will it be strong enough to be considered as a "financial collapse."
Note: A recession is said to exist when the nation experiences two consecutive negative quarters in terms of GDP. "Near recession" is a prolonged period of 1.8 or less. Obama's economy averaged 1.6% per year for the entire 8 years of his time as President.
The truth about Obama's claim of 10 million jobs and the "sharpest recover in American history."
Problem: During the recent recession, our economy lost 8.7 million jobs (per CNN) . Taking this numbers into the discussion, the net gain, "jobs created versus jobs lost," is 1.3 million to Obama's favor. In other words, using only two contrasting numbers, the recovery can [only] account for a meager 1.3 million jobs over the course of the past 6 years. But this is not "full disclosure" as to the lie Obama wants you to believe.
There is the matter of "workforce size." It is 9+ million folks smaller than during the sixth year of Bush . . . . . 9 million fewer people working and Bush had two economic disasters to deal with during his eight years: the destruction of the Twin Towers on "9/11" (that was the financial capitol of the world, folks), and the 2008 recession caused by Affordable Housing policies. Understand this, the workforce averaged above 65% for all of 2009. Then, the bottom began falling out from under this Administration. Today, as I write, it is at 62.7%, a near-40 year low.
You should know that 2.5 million of the "9+," are Americans who can work, but have given up the search and no longer qualify for unemployment assistance. The remaining 7 million? Some retired, others went on disability and others moved into the working "underground," where they work to survive but do not report their income.
Now, if I have not taken you all, too far into the weeds, with all these numbers, you know that comparing Obama's claim of "10 million jobs created" is wholly offset by the workforce exodus of 2.5 million folks, coupled with the number of jobs lost during the recession. He is at or a bit to the negative side of Zero.
Conclusion: Ask yourselves this question - "If the truth as to net - net job creation is 'zero,' what is the impact of the additional 5.4 million immigrants who have been granted work permits?"
I do not have an answer except to argue that this additional immigrant workforce actually adds to the population of unemployed. If 2.5 million available and unretired Americans are no longer counted in the workforce, that fact is made worse with the inclusion of the increasing immigrant population. Clearly, the 5.4 million immigrant workers coming into our economy, are NOT working, for the most part and remain unemployed. As an unintended consequence of Obama's immigration policy, then, is the increasing population of those, within our borders, who must depend on government assistance, and now you all know, why I think this man is an absolutely buffoon when it comes to corporate leadership.
A word of correction/caution: The Right, far too often, puts out that "all jobs created by Obama went to the immigrant population." Go here, for an example. Also know that Rick Santorum is making this same claim.
I am "Right," but I must tell the readership that this bit of propaganda is as wrong-headed as "wrong" can be . . . . . simply untrue, on par with Obama's claim that he has created 10 million jobs. It assumes that all of the 5.4 immigrants given work permits since Obama took office, are working . . . ALL are working. Seriously, no one who thinks for a moment, can believe this number, even before available research can be revealed. It is a silly-bordering-on-stupid claim.
Takeaway. The takeaway of this post is rather straight forward: it seems as if everybody is lying. Obama can't seem to give a speech of any kind, without offering up a lie or making use of misleading information; but the hard Right is guilty, far too often, of doing the same thing.
Economic News: Turns out the 1st Quarter GDP was far worse that originally reported . . . . 2 points worse, into negative territory; just one quarter away from a declared "2nd recession. "
32 share
Initial
report on 1st Q GDP (2014) was a "plus .3%.
Second
report on 1st Q GDP was a minus
.3%
Amendment
to the second report came in at a minus 1%.
And
now, the bad news about the 1st
Q:
The
government reported that the economy contracted at a 1.0 percent annual rate in
the January-March period. But with health care spending data now in hand,
economists say growth probably declined at a rate of at
least 1.7 percent. (per
The Scam Presidency – The fact of recession versus the illusion of “good times.”
<<<< We need to stop pretending that the shrinking workforce is a temporary reality. It is here to stay, at no fault of anyone. But, failed policies will make its affect far worse than needs be.
For the past several months,
the Fed and Ben Bernake have been printing 40 billion dollars per month
and the stock market is eating this up.
Some argue that this ridiculous amount of printed money is only
replacing the trillions lost in the closing months of 2008 and into early
2009.
Speaking as a sheer layman,
on this matter, I see a
difference between losing money and printing replacement money. I would think that we replace lost income
with more earned income. Call me stupid.
 |
| Click on image to enlarge |
At any rate, Ben is
busy printing money and Obama is using the “success” of Wall Street” to frame his “successful recovery.” But, we know this “recovery” is only an
illusion, and how do we know this? Because the economy is rocking along at minus
.01 (GDP). A true recovery, at this point in time, should be 3 percent to 6 percent. It ran 8 percent during the Reagan recovery
and the Carter recession was far worse than this one, contrary to popular media wording.
Add to this recovery “illusion,” the fact that “7.8% unemployment,” today,
in 2013 represents 5 million fewer people working than the 7.8% record
at the end of February of 2009.
Understand that the shrinking workforce is not simply a function of failed Obama policy (it includes this, of course). The Boomer generation is beginning to exit the job market and have entered Social Security. Others have declared themselves "handicapped" are officially disabled (no less than 80% are actually disabled and that estimate might be low).
This combination of attrition and failed policy has created a degree of permanency that will extend well into the future - perhaps into perpetuity.
Problem: unless we can figure out how to create more income with fewer workers, out GDP promises to remain at record lows, effecting (killing) the needed recovery. Understand that the Boomers are leaving the workforce at the rate of 10,000 per day, and this reduction/exodus will last for close to 17 years before that rate significantly reduces.
No one in Washington is looking at this particular problem. Government cannot "supply" the millions of jobs, necessary, to turn the economy around. And, no one is talking about what to do with all those American who can work but have no chance of landing a job.
At some point, our need to financially help those without a job and those who are retiring, will [far] exceed the ability to meet these new "obligations."
What to do?
1) start moving out of high risk communities.
2) reduce your debt and monthly payments
3) pay off your cars and home.
4) understand that you are going to be responsible for "you." Make fun of "rugged individualism" all you want; turns out, there is no choice for those who want to have any quality of life after the unavoidable national bust that has positioned itself on our horizon.
Two negative growth quarters constitutes a "recession." We just had our first negative quarter since 2009. Someone is lying to us. Do you care?
From The Hill:
The nation’s economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1 percent in
the fourth quarter of 2012, casting fresh doubt on the strength of the economy
recovery.
The new estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) from the
Commerce Department marks the first time the economy shrank since it was in the
depths of the recession in mid-2009.
The dip came as a surprise to economists. Experts had
believed the U.S. would post a modest economic gain of slightly over 1 percent,
after logging a 3.1 percent increase in the third quarter.
Editor’s notes: the official definition for “recession”
includes the fact of two quarters in a row with minus growth as to GDP. We just recorded our first quarter since
2009, of minus GDP.
Jobs report: The hourly wage number is decreasing, the financial stress on small businesses is increasing, and the middle class is shrinking, all due to the driving influence of ObamaCare.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state
programs, unadjusted, totaled 436,766 in the week ending January 19, a decrease
of 119,944 from the previous week but 20,000 higher than this time last year. There were 416,880 initial claims in the
comparable week in 2012. (see the DoL report, here)
Understand that the “seasonally adjusted” number is
always an unreal number, that allows those who publish such
nonsense, to mitigate the highs and lows
of the real numbers.
In this case, for
example, the seasonally adjusted first
time claims number for last week is 330,000
(for week ending Jan 19, 2013).
The actual number of folks walking into a claims office is 436,766 [claims processed during
last week] or, 106,000 more than the make-believe "seasonally adjusted" count.
Further, and in this
case, the two numbers present a vastly
different reality. The adjusted number
shows a jobs economy that is trending upwards while the real numbers show a
jobs economy that is 20,000 jobs poorer than in January of 2012 . . .
. and somewhat static.
The fact is we are far from where we need to be in order to
seriously applaud the current situation. We have fewer job positions filled than a year ago, and, to make matters worse, if the workforce was as large as when Obama took office (2009), unemployment
would be 10.5 % and underemployment would be 14.2% . 8.8 million fewer Americans are being counted in the unemployment figures. These people are not working and have no hope for change, anytime soon.
Because of ObamaCare,
the hope of an improving jobs market carries this caveat: a huge percentage of all "added jobs" are
part-time (under 30 hours per
week) to make up for the reduction in full time employment.
Thousands of jobs are being created to account for the new,
part time positions. The hourly wage
number is decreasing, the financial stress
on small businesses is increasing, and the
middle class is shrinking, all due to
the driving influence of ObamaCare.
Thanks,
Democrats, for nothing but misery
and hard times. What started as a
recessionary cycle, in the last two
years of Bush, is now a way of
life, under H Obama.
Congressional Budget Office talks about 2012 - not good for re-election purposes
Continuing Annual Debt Increase
The CBO set the annual debt for 2012 at 1.1 trillion taking the
average annual debt, under Obama, down to 1.4 trillion (per year). Under
Bush, the previous record holder, average annual debt was $400 billion.
Understand that the four year plan, from this administration, called
for a $600 billion in deficit for 2012 ($800 billion for 2011).
Further, the
CBO sees unemployment at 8% or above through all of 2012. We tend to
forget that under Bush, unemployment averaged 5.5% for the eight year
term including the recession laden 2008 . . . . . . . 4.7% without 2008
numbers. We are in the fifth year of this recessionary period and Obama
continues to act as if his social agenda, moving this country
into an European style form of governance, is more important than dealing
the recession.
Housing prices
have declined in value, during this period (actually since 2006) by
33% and Obama's mortgage rescue plan has failed. Designed to give aid to
7 million troubled homeowners, less than 400,000 were benefited.
And the beat goes on. With latest totals, end of year (2011)
mortgage prices declined another 1.3% according to the S&P / Case Shiller
20 city index. Prices on that index fell in 19 of the 20 cities studied.
Phoenix, Arizona was the lone exception. Chicago,
Atlanta and Detroit are the hardest hit by the mortgage crisis.
Update:
True unemployment: According to the CBO, if we included the same size workforce as two years ago (the Obama Administration has reduced down the size of the workforce), the 8.5% unemployment rate reported for December of 2011 would actually be 10%.
Taxes are scheduled to increase by more than 30% over 2012 and 2013.
GDP (the measure of our economic expansion) will be 2.2% for 2012 (it was 1.7% for the entire of 2011), and just 1.0 % for 2013, the year that ObamaCare rises to full force as a forced law
Update:
True unemployment: According to the CBO, if we included the same size workforce as two years ago (the Obama Administration has reduced down the size of the workforce), the 8.5% unemployment rate reported for December of 2011 would actually be 10%.
Taxes are scheduled to increase by more than 30% over 2012 and 2013.
GDP (the measure of our economic expansion) will be 2.2% for 2012 (it was 1.7% for the entire of 2011), and just 1.0 % for 2013, the year that ObamaCare rises to full force as a forced law
End Notes:
CNN
Business News 1/31/2012
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