Notes on polling during election eve week.

I have cautioned my readership to take Corporate polling with a grain of salt,  understanding that those polls are for the purpose of raising money for the several candidates. 

But,  as election day approaches its final hours, many if not most polling agencies,  get honest in an effort to validate their existence for the next election cycle.  Most will not publish 12 point leads for their party of choice.   Rather,  you will find Left or Right leaning predictions,  but within reason.  

As far as this blog is concerned,  I intend to wait until this weekend  (beginning Friday)  before publishing any serious polling predictions.  Never lose sight of the fact that even serious polling concerns,  FiveThirtyEight,  the L.A. Times/USC regional daily poll,  Invester's Daily and Real Clear Politics,  take the place of election day results.  

Its almost over and it has been a blast.  After the election,  I may retire from my predictive/political perch and join the normal people who never think about politics, and live their lives as if our "leaders" are irrelevant to daily living. 

Press Secretary Josh Earnest makes a surprise statement regarding Comey

Josh Earnest made it clear in Monday mornings presser,  that Barack Obama has the upmost faith in FBI Director,  James Comey,  as well as his Attorney General,  Loretta Lynch.  Earnest made the point that neither he nor the White House have enough information to pass judgment on the Comey letter presented to  last Friday.    Not only that, but Earnest made it clear that Barack does not believe Director Comey is trying to influence the election.  In fact,  his statement used those very words.  Earnest's exact wording is,

"The President does not believe that Director Comey is intentionally trying to influence the outcome of an election.  The President doesn't believe he is secretly strategizing to benefit one candidate or one political party.  He (the Director - editor) is in a tough spot."

What is significant about this press conference,  is that Josh Earnest's statement as to the position of Barack Obama,  takes the air out the sails of those on the Left who want to run Comey out of town for his decision to reopen the email investigation.  

In this blog,  we have taken the position that Barack is a revolutionary.  We have never pushed the opinion that he was a crook in the sense of taking money from government sources to enrich himself.  Hillary,  by contrast,  is all about self enrichment.  It is startling as to the degree her greed dominates her life's pursuits.  

At any rate,  there you have it from the top.  The Boss of the Democrat Party believes Comey is doing his job.  

Kind of leaves Hillary blowing in the wind,  no?  

Morning news regarding ObamaCare includes the following:

116% ObamaCare premium increases in Arizona, 40% in Penn and 53% In North Carolina

More than premium increases,  deductible increases of  15% across the nation with a $7,500 deductible as an average for a family of four  . . .  for the cheapest of policies. The more expensive policies set 12,000 dollars as the deductible.   

Such deductibles mean the average American will never use the insurance they are being forced to buy.  In other words,  the Muslim wannabee occupying our White House,  helped no one with the passage of his health care reform bill.  

The problem?  Young people have decided to pay the fines and not join the insurance exchanges  -  nearly 9 million folks.  And,  without these healthy bodies paying full bore,  the system fails  . . . .   and that is what we are witnessing. 

As of 5:09 am, eastern time, early voting in Florida is going great for the . . . .

Per FoxNews reporting,  As of 5:09 am,  eastern time, Monday morning,   early voting in Florida is going great for the GOP. 

With absentee balloting,  the GOP is 63,279 ahead of the Dems.  In-person precinct voting has the Dems ahead of the GOP by 41,989,  and net difference of 22,290 favoring the GOP.  

Now,  this does not mean the GOP will win Florida,  but it certainly means the landslide,  one sided election,  beginning with the Florida vote,  may be nothing more than a fantasy of the Democrat mindset.  

Time will tell.  

Comey could not tell the nation "what they had" in the newly discovered emails. They did not have the necessary warrants, but now . . . . .

Sunday and before the end of the weekend,  it is being reported that the DOJ has given warrants to the FBI for opening the emails found-and-reported the end of this past week.  Understand that if some of these emails were on Anthony Weiner's laptop,  it is safe to assume that the FBI already had the warrants needed to open and read those emails.  

Trump,  on the campaign trail,  has charged that there are some 650,000 reasons to doubt the Clintons.**  If he is talking about emails,  the number is scary big.  If the number is something that he simply made up,  that is good,  as well.  Why?  Because Trump's charge, true or false,  should force someone in the know,  to tell us how many emails are in this latest trove.  If that total is 100's of thousands,  Hillary has a huge problem.  

** This is now being reported as "630,000" and a number of news outlets have made this report.  No wonder Comey reopened the investigation.  This far far exceeds the totals Hillary gave to us,  back in early 2015.  Its a long way from 55,000 to 630,000.  

A final thought:  Did Hillary just give the FBI permission to reveal the subject matter of the newly discovered emails? 


Matt Zapotosky / Washington Post:
FBI obtains search warrant to search newly discovered emails potentially relevant to Clinton investigation  —  The FBI has obtained a warrant to search the emails found on a computer used by former Congressman Anthony Weiner that may contain evidence relevant to the investigation …

  NBC News:
FBI Obtains Warrant for Newly Discovered Emails in Clinton Probe — as Reid Accuses Comey of Hatch Act Violation  —  The FBI obtained a warrant to search emails related to the Hillary Clinton private server probe that were discovered on ex-congressman Anthony Weiner's laptop, law enforcement officials confirmed Sunday.

If a 60 day "accusation free zone" exists around FBI investigations prior to a national election, why not apply the same rule to the press?

If a 60 day "accusation free zone" exists around FBI investigations prior to a national election,  why not apply the same rule to the press?  60 days ago would have prohibited the video that got Trump in so much trouble from being published when it was.  In fact,  a 60 ban would end the strategy of an "October surprise," and the grave influence such often has on our elections.   The Dems are fine with prosecuting gossip and pure lies right up to election day,  but self-righteously argue against law enforcement from doing its job and  "interfering" in that same election process? 

The video of Trump talking to Billy Bush was devastating,  but not more so than the announcement of the reopening of the email investigation.  So live with it.  

What a bunch of hypocrites.  

I did a comprehensive search for this headline and could not find:

I found this headline,  over the weekend: 
On Clinton Emails, Did the F.B.I. Director Abuse His Power?
In fact,  this is beginning to be a running theme of the Corportate/Globalist media as they join with the Commun-ist Progressives to defeat the most recent development,  that of the FBI reopening the email case against Mrs. Bill Clinton.  

What I couldn't find,  is its counter part,  a headline that might read:  On Clinton Emails,  Did Justice find Hillary guilty of abuse of her authority as Secretary of State?  

Not there.  Nowhere.  

Understand that the headlined question linked,  above,  is an implicit condemnation of the FBI and its power responsibility as the investigative branch of the Department of Justice.    Protocol be damned.  

There should be no "rule" of conduct that allows an overtly  guilty party to hide from scrutiny exercised by law enforcement. 

We are talking about a tradition (they call it "protocol") that says,  if a guilty party survives until 60 days before an election cycle,  they are home free from criminal inquiry,  at least,  until after the election.    

That makes as much sense as saying,  "If you are not prosecuted by mid-month, persecution must wait until the first of the following month," or,  "I am going to kick your butt if you hit my wife one more time!"  

Comey is not the bad guy, here.  It is the Obama Administration, its DOJ and its Secretary of State.  

This blog never called for the Director's head.  As editor,  I was an angry as anyone,  but I knew that I did not know the pressures and the closed door pressure being brought to bear on the Agency.  

And, now,  that another 10,000 emails have been discovered,  I do not see how Comey had a choice?  But more than this,  the really big story is found in the fact that the DOJ has not given the FBI a warrant to open any of these emails.  So they sit on someone's desk,  while Hillary runs around demand "transparency" when she knows full well the FBI cannot comply with her wishes unless and until they get legal permission to open these emails.  

If the DOJ does the impossible,  and issues the warrant,  anyone want to be that Hillary stops demanding to know what is in those emails?  

I believe the Obama via his DOJ told Hillary about the warrant before she started making her demands for opening the emails.  If I am correct,  the DOJ will never give permission,  not before the election.  

Its is a crooked a bunch of politicians as I have seen in my 71 years.  They should all be taken out in back of the barn and buried up to their chins in pig shit   . . . . . .    and left there until the rains come and float them out of the mud.     

'nuff said.  

Democrat "top cops" Loretta Lynch and Sally Yates opposed decision to re reopen email investigation.

AOL is running a story,  this morning,  telling its readers that Attorney General, Loretta Lynch,  and, and her assistant A.G., Sally Yates,  both cautioned James Comey against announcing the reopening of Hillary's email scandal.  The reason?  It appears there is a protocol against the FBI making announcements that might influence an election within 60 days of a particular election.  

"Unheard of," folks are saying.  Even Judge Janine (FoxNews) issued an emotional rant against this decision on Saturday.

Me?  For what it is worth,  I believe to not make the announcement would have influenced the election in Hillary's favor.  Comey was given information just two days before his announcement to Congress that the Agency had discovered more than 10,000 in possession of Anthony Weiner.  More than this,  it is believed that this trove of documents includes emails that counter the earlier decision not to prosecute.  Hillary should not be rewarded because some phony "protocol" if that protocol provides cover for her crimes.  

Protocol be damned.  Especially in view of the demonstrative fact that the Justice Department is an extension of Barack Obama's demands and agenda for this nation.  Both women at the DOJ, are Democrats,  and if you think politics have not been in play,  in this matter (Hillary's email revelations),  well,  you simply have not been paying attention.  
Related storyline:

What does the reopening of the Hillary probe actually mean?

You should know that it is grossly unfair to criticize Comey for granting qualified "immunity" deals to several of Hillary's closest staff.  All such arrangements come from the Department of Justice.  

Further,  it is unfair to criticize the Director for not setting up a Grand Jury.  Again,  such a decision is made by the DOJ,  and only by the DOJ.  

These two considerations (above) are solely the work of the Obama Administration.  It was Obama, by rite of his position  (he is the boss) that prevented a Grand Jury or the allowing for the offer of immunity.  

With these corrections in mind,  I believe it is significant that Comey made his announcement,  yesterday,  in disregard to DOJ pressure to forgo the announcement.  In doing so,  he is implicitly making the statement that the FBI's ability to investigate anyone at any time,  is a sovereign responsibility.  This "sovereignty" is enhanced by the fact that the FBI Director's position is a 10 year appointment.  He is not the servant of any Administration.  Yesterday,  Comey asserted that sense of independence.  And, Hillary is forced to answer for her crimes.  

Carl Bernstein, one of the two primary reporters in the (Nixon) Watergate Scandal supports the FBI's decision to reopen.

Critical Update:  Even before this story broke,  the ABC/WaPost tracking poll that gave Hillary a 12 point advantage,  last week,  shows Hillary with a disappointing 2 point lead,  today.  

Carl Bernstein, one of the principle reporters into the Watergate scandal,  took time to comment on the latest events, on Friday.

He believes the FBI decided to reopen its investigation based on something so "large" that silence was no longer an option. 

We don't know what this means yet except that it's a real bombshell. And it is unthinkable that the Director of the FBI would take this action lightly, that he would put this letter forth to the Congress of the United States saying there is more information out there about classified e-mails and call it to the attention of congress unless it was something requiring serious investigation.

 Also,  he believes there may be more of this late breaking "bombshell"  (Bernstein's word) coming down the pike. 

 Right now we're all talking in a vacuum but I want to add here that in the last, oh, 36, 48 hours, there has been an undercurrent of kind of speculative discussion among some national security people that something might surface in the next few days about e-mails, and I think the expectation in this chatter -- and I took it as just chatter but informed chatter, to some extent -- was that it would relate to another round of WikiLeaks e-mails, which our Justice Department people seem to be saying is not the case, but there has been some noise in the national security community the last day or two of this kind of possibility of some kind of revelation. 

Understand that this FBI story has already buried the good news about the economy  (GDP report of yesterday at 2.9%)   . . . . .  hardly a mention of this news yesterday,  in the corporate media.   Dana Perino,  GW Bush's press secretary, told Fox and Friends Saturday morning,  that the news cycle for such a breaking story (talking about the FBI story) is 10 days,  which,  of course,  takes us to November 8.  

FBI agents were leaking information and . . . . . . .

J Christian Adams, an retired DOJ lawyer, was interviewed on Fox and Friends,  Saturday morning.  Here is what we learned:  

1. There were two (FBI) agents leaking information and were promising to be even more of problem into the near future.  That is part of the reason Comey had no choice but to reopen the investigation based on the discovery of thousands of emails during an ongoing investigation into Anthony Weiner and charges that he was sexting to a 15 year old minor.  

2.  Apparently,  agents did not destroy evidence relevant to the Hillary case,  including (possibly) the laptop belonging Cheryl Mills.  Mills is "the other woman" advisor to Hillary.  Mills is legal council to the wannabee First Lady.  We have been told for weeks,  that she (Mills) was given protections against prosecution with the condition that she surrender her laptop.  Per Adams,  there is the possibility that the FBI has this appliance.

From the New York Times,  we are told that the many of Hillary's emails were found on Weiner's cell phone.

More information to come.  Stay tuned.

Clinton demands the impossible with the hope of managing this crisis. These Clintons just never give up.

Clinton demands 'full and complete facts' from FBI, and so the Clinton game begins.  Understand this:  SHE ALREADY KNOWS what the FBI has.  I mean,  these emails belong to her and Huma.  What Mrs. Clinton doesn't know can be resolved by simply asking her assistant. 

She only makes this demand because she knows the FBI cannot release their information before the end of their investigation.  Understand that the FBI reserves the right to open any and all investigations,  if new information comes into view   . . . . . .   and that is exactly what has happened.  

 You do know that the Dems will try to respond with another scandal?   But,  this FBI investigation will be headline news until the day of the election, take it to the bank.  

 What will the Dems do?  March out the 13th "victim" of abuse against Trump?  And you think that this will take the events of the day off the front page?    

At any rate,  I say,  maybe God has something to do with this bit of history.  Prove me wrong. 

Most corrupt Administration in our lifetime. Now Attorney General Lynch refuses to testify before congress. She is taking the fifth !!

“As the United States’ chief law enforcement officer, it is outrageous that you would essentially plead the Fifth and refuse to respond to inquiries regarding your role in providing cash to the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism,”    ~ Marko Rubio and associate.

Problem?  They wanted the Attorney General to testify with regard to the secretive 1.8 billion dollar payment to Iran including 400 million in untraceable gold and coin,  delivered in the middle of the night in an unmarked plane.  

Nearly 70% of this nation thinks Barack is taking us down the wrong path.  More importantly,  he refuses to explain why and what he is doing to anyone as he marches us over the cliff.   Virtually everything this menace has done,  over the course of the past eight years,  has either been clandestine and in avoidance of congressional authority,  covered up by lies and misinformation, or, set up by a deliberate strategy to deceive.  

And today,  we were taught another lesson on corruption and the sin of trusting our elected officials.   

Of course, you all know this,  so why this post?  Just to re-enforce the need to vote this bunch of corrupt revolutionaries trying to subvert this nation and its very historicity.  
Read the full story here: 

CNBC runs a story that allows for a Trump victory using a methodolgy that has not been wrong in 12 years.

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama's peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.

"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest," Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC. 

Read the full story here:

How bad is the news of the FBI and Hillary's emails? Well, just look at the headline swamp the announcement has created. It is as bad as it can gets. Don't read, just look at ALL these headlines.

Caution Alert !!!    Way too early to celebrate unless you, as a conservative patriot (is there any other kind of patriot?),  are celebrating the fact that we now have a serious reason to hope for a righteous outcome on Nov. 8 

Emily Hill / Spectator:
‘The woman is a disaster!’: Camille Paglia on Hillary Clinton   Find
30 minutes ago
Katie Bo Williams / The Hill:
October surprise: FBI opens new Clinton email investigation   Find
30 minutes ago
Madeline Conway / Politico:
FBI reviewing new evidence in Clinton email probe   Find
50 minutes ago
Everett Rosenfeld / CNBC:
FBI probing new Clinton emails
Washington Post:
FBI to take new ‘investigative steps’ on Clinton emails  —  The FBI will investigate whether additional classified material is contained in emails sent using Hillary Clinton's private email server while she was sectretary of state, FBI director James Comey informed Congressional leaders Friday.
  NBC News:
FBI Says It Will Investigate New Hillary Clinton Emails  —  The FBI is reviewing a new batch of Hillary Clinton emails, bureau director James Comey said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on Friday.  —  “In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence …
  Meghan Keneally / ABC News:
FBI Reopening Clinton Email Investigation  —  FBI Director James Comey released a statement today saying that the FBI is going to continue the previously closed investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails from her time as secretary of state.  —  “In connection with an unrelated case …
  Theodore Schleifer / CNN:
FBI reviewing new emails in Clinton probe  —  (CNN)FBI Director James Comey said Friday the bureau is reviewing new emails related to Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state, according to a letter sent to eight congressional committee chairmen, a surprise development with 11 days until the election.

  Everett Rosenfeld / CNBC:
FBI probing new Clinton emails  —  FBI director James Comey sends a letter to Capitol Hill regarding the investigation of new emails of Hillary Clinton.  CNBC's Eamon Javers reports the details.  —  The FBI is probing new emails related to Hillary Clinton, FBI Director James Comey said in a Friday letter.

Expect the Dems to come up with another Trump "scandal" as they try to counter the news of the FBI and its decision to reopen the email investigation. (no article).

Just as the biggest election cycle story of the year is breaking, we have news that Trump's trend lines are pointing up.

Oct 22 to Oct 28

Six days ago,  Trump was down 8 points.  Today,  that lead has been cut in half to 4 points. 

Yesterday,  Clinton was up 1 point in the LA poll.  Today,  Trump is up 12 points. 

Three weeks ago,  Trump was down 13 points in the Fox News poll.  Two weeks ago,  that deficit was 7 points,  and this week,  he is 3 points down.  

The ABC/WSJ poll has Trump cutting Hillary's lead by 50% over their rather ridiculous poll of last week  (he was down 12 points in that silly excuse of a political survey).  

As the FBI reopens its email investigation and before Hillary's plane lands for a campaign appearance, CNN/MSNBC are making these comments.

"Hillary's plane has no WiFi,  so they only finding out about this as they land Cedar Rapids, Iowa."  (no one has a cell phone?).

"I don't know the effect on Hillary's campaign,  but this is very bad news for Hillary."  (if this is bad news,  we all know the effect of this announcement.  Will it defeat her.  Maybe we don't know that,  but this is a disaster for the campaign  . . . . . .  that we know.)

"This shows what a flawed candidate Hillary Clinton is."  ('nuff said on that score).   
MSNBC:  We are having a hard time getting ahold of Hillary's people.  

Andrea Mitchell was asked by a MSNBC  "Do you think this Comey trying to save face?"  Her answer was a qualified "no."

James Comey has just reopened the Hillary Clointon email investigation

Update:  Comey has addressed a letter to Congress, officially reopening the Clinton email investigation because of new emails that "appear to be pertinent."  

This is a criminal investigation,  always has been.  And it is now,  back on.  Early commentary has to do with the thought that there must be something significant that has come to the FBI Director's attention.  

 Are these new emails from Wikileaks or from emails sent to and stored on google accounts.  As it turns out,  the FBI did not subpoena Google.  At any rate,  there is simply no way the FBI was not aware of the consequences of this new action.  

11 days before the election,  what appears to have been put bed,  is now,  "back on."  It is highly unlikely that this matter will be settled before the election which means Hillary gets to live with this headline right up to November 8. 

What wins elections in this day and time?

 What wins elections in this day and time?  Turn out,  period.

The morning polls  I care about (which excludes all network polling efforts) has Trump up 2 points in the L.A. poll, and 2 points down in the Investers Daily Business poll.  He is 3.8 points down in the Fox News poll,  but that is better than the 7 point deficit last week,  and the 13 point deficit two weeks ago. 

Many polls have him down 5,6 7 points.  ABC had him down 12 points,  three days ago.  You should ignore any and all polls that have nothing to do with reality,  and the ABC poll is one of those polls.  What I mean is this,  reality is a presidential victory of between three and 5 points,  typically  . . . .   11, 12, 13 points are all out of the question.  These conclusions simply will not happen, and we know this because they have never happened. 

Most poll over sample Democrats versus Republicans,  and this is defended because there are more registered Dems than Republicans. 

Which is no reason to over-sample.  "Over-sampling" is a prediction regarding turn-out.  Who cares how many Dems are registered.  It is those who turn out to vote that counts.  If you believe that 28% more Democrats will vote than Republicans,  then you can believe that Trump will lose by 6 points  . . . .   such are the parameters of network polling.  But if you believe 10% more Republicans will vote versus Democrats,  you can believe that Donald will take the victory lap.  

I have friends in Seattle and Denver,  and they report the absence of Trump signage in those communities, as well. Millions of voters are pretending to be non-voters,  because of the fear factor.  Is that reflected in the polling conclusions across the nation.  Are people telling pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear?  So do,  you know.  But more to the point,  more conservative types do not answer the phones nor participate in phone polls.  I don't.  They are voters,  but fly below the radar.  

In spite of the fact that Trump is such a clown,  he is within striking distance,  versus,  the very corrupt Mrs. Bill Clinton.  Turn out will make this election and as long as Trump keeps it close,  the opportunity for victory,  even a landslide victory,  is there. 

I live in a small California town in the Central Valley.  Very Conservative area.  No Trump signs.  Why?  Fear.  Who wants their house vandalized or car keyed?  But that is the mentality of the Democrat opposition.  They tend to violence and most normal folks  do not want to deal with the Left Wing Threat Machine.  So,  no signage   . . . .  yet we all are going to the polls and the Trump vote will not begin to mirror the lack of signage in my community.  

Now you know.


Maybe Barack is not such a Constitutional scholar, after all, or he would know this.

Supreme Court - why 8 justices may be better than 9:

First, the original Court (1790) had 6 justices.

An odd number of justices allows the court to remain divided and moves Congress to the curb. An even number either forces the Court to reach an agreement with itself, or drives the Congress to rewrite the law to a standard that will pass. Me? I am fine with 8.

She wants 20 million to stay.

Megyn Kelly wants $20 million to stay at Fox.  I am fine with this woman,  not because she supports all conservative causes,  but because she is a great news reporter.  Investigative journalist?  Not so much.  But,  she is a great reporter.  I would argue that she deserves the money simply because she has to work with the insufferable Bill O'Reilly. 

Meet Bill Clinton's son(?) . . . . . . . . well . . . . . . . . . he really does look like Bill.

More than the story, itself,  this proves the power of the people,  again.  YouTube banned this video account just a few days ago.  An uproar ensued and,  wala,  the decision was revised.  If enough people complain loud enough and long enough,  often they get a desired result.  Another very recent example is the decision by Ash Carter,  Secretary of Defense, to reverse the Obama Pentagon's decision to take back the Bush era bonuses ($15,000 and more) used to encourage California National Guard enlistments.  Just two weeks ago this story hit the headlines.  The Pentagon had decided to go after these bonuses - offered by the Bush Administration.  The uproar was deafening,  and,  yesterday,  the decision was completely reversed.  On the other hand,  when you refuse popular and expressed opinion,  often you bring down the wrath of gawd   . . .  i.e. , what has happened to the GOP.  Leadership ignored its right-wing constituency,  and is paying the price.  Make no mistake,  Trump is not the problem,  per se,  he is the end game of a thing called "revenge."  Power to the people  !!!!  Vote this November.  Who knows,  maybe this time,  "they" are listening. 

Independents may be going to Trump

Three weeks ago,  in the FoxNews poll,  Hillary and Trump were tied with Independents.  Last week,  Trump had a 7 point advantage,  and today,  that advantage shot up to 13 points.  

Predictive?  Will this trend line hold true?  

All questions the passing of time will answer.  

Hispanic updates for Nevada and Florida and their respective early voting attendance

Currently,  Trump is taking in 33% of the Hispanic vote in Florida and Nevada and is leading Hillary with Independents 41/28 ( in a Fox poll).  Some polls have him up by 22% with Independents.  Also,  the black vote down,  so much so,  that Dems are worried.  They can bus a few thousand to the polls,  but they cannot bus a few million.  

No one is jumping up and down,  here.  But the early voting is encouraging.  

25,000 at Tampa Trump rally . . . . 'nuff said.

Why are we talking about 20 million folks being in Obama Care and not 320 million? Wasn't it to be universal healhcare for EVERYBODY?

We are not talking about "320 million" because 120 million policies (around 2.5 citizens per policy) are covered by the "employer mandate." 

Are you aware that the employer mandate has not been implemented,  six and a half years after the bill was signed into law?


Because the unions,  especial the AFL-CIO told Obama to go pound sand.  A key attraction used to lure folks into union membership is the shared healthcare program of the unions.  Obama labels these policies  "unfair" because they are not offered to all citizens,  only union members.  

As a result, under Obama Care's employer mandate,  all such policies are taxed an additional 40% per year.  It is called a "Cadillac tax" and is in addition to the yearly increases in premiums.    If the mandate is enforced,  as written,  the unions will lose those policies and membership will be drastically affected.  As a result,  union leadership has made it clear,  enforce this mandate and you lose union support in coming elections.  

 So Obama,  the coward that he is,  has backed off,  not knowing how to remedy this desertion.  

In fact,  this very circumstance,  unions telling Central Planning to go to hell,  is the reason why we may never have single payer.  Can't have single payer and "Cadillac health care" at the same time.  

Kind of sad that our health care may get so expensive, none of us will be able to own a Cadillac,  mush less pay the tax  

My note to Glenn Beck:

John Smithson    Glenn, you talk about principles as if the rest of us have no principles unless we agree with you . . . and I am talking about the particulars of this election cycle. When your principles do not allow you vote for Trump, paving the way for a Hillary victory, there is something wrong with you that cannot be fixed. I am not voting for Trump because I like the guy. I am voting for the guy because the system IS rigged. If he wins, we, as the conservative nation, can and must join together and figure out what to do next. If Hillary wins, we all (the conservative nation) will be separated from the rest of the nation and ignored . . . . again. And you are going to fix that, AFTER Hillary wins???? Dumber than a pile of rocks does not catch your intractable thinking in this matter . . . . and I was once a great fan, big time follower. But you have insulted me and my friends, for the last time, in your determined effort to destroy all viable options to Hillary including Trump, You laughed and mocked the 16 choices we had not named Ted Cruz. I assume, now, that you no longer support Cruz, either. Which means, you support NO ONE for the coming election. NO ONE. Good grief. Hope your personal life is not as screwed up as the political dialectic that finds you being used by Charlie Rose and the rest of the Commun-ist world.

More bad news for Barack's imposter of a health reform law.

He actually said,  premiums for a family of four will go down 2500 dollars in the first year and decrease in the following years.  Of course,  there was no way this was going to happen and many fifth grade students knew this before any of the Democrat braintrust figured it out.  In fact,  premiums never went down,  and this year,  across the nation,  premiums will increase another 25% on average.    By 2013/2014,  premiums had increased $7450 for a family of four,  per Forbes.  This is an increase that comes out of the family's available cash.  In other words,  this Phony In Chief  DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with regard to his promises regarding health reform.  

When Obama brags about 20 million folks in Obama Care,  he includes 8 million that went into Medicaid/Medcare,  leaving 12.5 millions actually in the program.  But that was last year.  Today,  that 12.5 number is now 10.5 million,  with 8 million paying the fines and staying away from this monster of a drain on their individual "economies."
And I thought this was for the whole nation?  So,  how come we are talking about 20 million  or 10.5  million but not 300 million?  Time to get even with the crooks and liars that have run our nation into the ground and still pretend to support the Founders' dreams.  

Video: Artist Joe Everson "Paints" the National Anthem MUST SEE!

Go ahead keep pretending: Compare rally attendance and Facebook/Twiter interest and tell me Trump has a "turn out problem."


WOW! TRUMP Cleveland Rally Has 1.7 MILLION Views – Hillary Cleveland Rally has 3,825 Views

 Hillary in Cleveland


Zero Hedge is telling his readers the very thing I have been preaching (for years) - - - that most media surveys are stacked in Hillary's favor . . . period.

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary.  Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats
"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."
Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll. 
Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another.  As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters.  Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points.  Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

Editor:  How to read the following:  ABC interviewed far more women than men,  under reported white populations,  wildly over reported minorities,  surveyed far more Democrats than Republicans, and interviewed zero male college grads.  OF COURSE, Hillary wins this poll.  Good grief.  

ABC Poll

About that ABC polling telling us that Hillary is 11 points up on Trump.

Think about this: has anyone won a presidential election by 11 points in our lifetime? No. Not even close. This is not about reporting truth. It is about repressing the GOP vote, period.

"11 points" is as ridiculous a conclusion as this scenario: I say Hillary wins by 11 and her first act, as president, is to walk into the Oval Office, strip down naked, jump up on her desk and do a hula-bump . . . . . in front of reporters.

My point? BOTH conclusions should be disregarded from the outset. They are equally stupid (if believed). An 11 point victory is just as ridiculous as a naked hula bump. Trust me.

There are serious tracking polls (you never see them) that show a 7 point advantage for the GOP as to turn-out. If "turn-out" happens, the polls be damned. This ABC "survey" (which questioned 28% more Democrats than GOP/Independents). is all about discouraging you as the voter.

And "yes," MOST but not all, national polls survey 20 to 28 percent more Dems than Republicans. In other words, they cheat.

How do I know? Because I do research for a couple of large political outlets and publish a political blog of my own (this blog) that reaches 70,000 people per day, during the campaign season.

 In other words, when it comes to numbers, I know what I am talking about.

Notes on the effect of media reporting on the sandal THAT is the Clinton Foundation . . . . . emphasis on "the reporting."

I want you to read this excerpt.  Don't worry about the fact that it is taken from the heart of the article  (which will link) .  Just know that you don't have to know the context to get my point: 

"When Clinton first took office in 2008, the foundation disclosed that Saudi Arabia donated between $10 to $25 million, with some donations coming as recently as 2014 when Clinton prepared her run for the presidency. The foundation received an additional $1 to $5 million donation from the “Friends of Saudi Arabia,” which was cofounded by a Saudi prince. Critics question the ethics of taking such vast sums of money from individuals and a government with one of the worst human rights records in the world."  

The article goes on to say that Hillary (her Foundation) took 12 million dollars in a donation from Morocco,  while Secretary of State,  a donation that eventually lead to a 92 million dollar contract for that country,  a "no-bid" contract,  no less.  

My point?   Besides the fact that no one cares  (a sad sad statement about the collective morality of this nation),  the article is a bit silly.   Did the Saudis give Secretary of State,  Hillary Clinton, 10 million or 25 million dollars?  I mean,  the two numbers are not even close.  And,  if we do not have an answer to this  question,  how do any of us know that this nefarious donation was not 100 million or 25 to the Foundation and another 25 to Hillary "under the table?"  The fact of the matter is this: we do not know, and,  we do not know because the media does not want us to know, or, they would do their stinking job.   We only know that money (a lot of money?) changed hands.  We tacitly know that this money would have never gone to Hillary if she had not been in a political position giving her the power/authority to influence the granting of a huge no-bid contract.  More than this,  in a related matter,  did the friends of the Saudis give one million or 5 million dollars?  Is there not a meaningful difference between giving someone 1000 dollars and 5000 ? 

In other words,  all we know from reading this article is that money was given to Hillary   . . . .  some money was given to Hillary and this passes for news.   

Here is my take-away:  media reporters are wildly partisan and should be discounted for that reason alone.  But,  more than this,  when it comes to their primary function,  investigative journalism,  they are, also, lazy  and/or inept  belief.  The Founders believed the "press" would be a "enemy" of the Left and the Right.  Without that,  "representative democracy" does not survive   . . . . .   and we are at that point,  today.  

Understand that "democracy,"  per se,  is not a good thing.  "Democracy" is another word for "the rule of the majority."  What about blacks,  or Hispanics,  or gays, or Christians or whoever?  "Representative democracy" is the gift of our Founders to the world  . . . . .   and the world has rejected that gift as has the Progressives in our country.  

You ask, "You got that point out of this article?!!!"  

Yes !!  And in this regard:  In the end and after reading this "news" article,  I am telling you that we actually know next to nothing.  And the partisan media wins the popularity contest without  - once again - doing its job.  AND, true representative democracy takes another hit.  If the media is not going to report on facts that it could have known,  certainly it will not report on facts that do harm to their political views.  And, we are all so screwed   . . . . .   at least those of us who are part of the Patriot Nation. 

Barack and his Pentagon puts knife in solders backs, again.

Short of enough troops to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan more than 10 years ago,  the Bush Pentagon ordered/allowed  the California National Guard to  hand out "bonuses" of $15,000 and more,  to lure men and women into signing up for  the two front war in the Middle East.
Now, today, the Obama Pentagon is demanding the money back.  No apologies.  No grace period.  10,000 soldiers are in the cross-hairs of the Pentagon,    This is the Federal government,  not the California National Guard,  making this demand.  This (ultimately) is Barack Obama and his end game against the military. 

"Explanations" (code for "excuses")  abound,  but,  in the end,  Obama has,  once again,  stuck a knife in the back of the men and women in our military.  He has his social welfare programs to fund.  To hell with the military. 

This kind of crap goes hand in hand with his orders to terminate commanding officers,  robbing them of their full and potential retirement wages,  and,  doing so while they were literally on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq.  This is the same back stabbing coward who went to sleep 7 hours before two of his solders were murdered in Benghazi,  men screaming for help,  not knowing that their commander had written them off for the sake of winning an election.    He is nothing but a coward,  a man who cares not for the sacrifices of our solders   . . .  not one damn bit of feeling for our solders.  I mean,  he pissed off a 5 year war and its victory,  in Iraq,  ordering a retreat that mocked the deaths of 5,000 men and women who fought to win that war,  and left behind millions of dollars worth of equipment now being used by ISIS.   

Take your pick but know this: an 11 point prediction has nothing to do with any potential election year reality.

John Merline / Investor's Business Daily:
Trump Up 2 Points Nationwide, While Clinton Campaigns As If The Race Is Already Won — IBD/TIPP Poll


Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll

Editor:  Expect to be deluged by the networks and their so-called "tracking polls."  As in all national elections,  the Left with its media trolls,  are working 24/7 to defeat the GOP and Trump  (but that would not change if the challenger was Rubio or Jeb or whoever). 

This is all about the people versus the globalists (more so than ever before) and the globalists have determined that they are not going to lose this election.   

Having said that,  understand this:  Hillary is not going to win the election by 11 percentage points.  No one does.  So,  it is clear that the ABC poll has nothing to do with reality.  It is not predictive of anything because its conclusion(s) are so out of touch with the reality it pretends to survey.   

Trump's most comprehensive stump speech of the campaign. Undecided? You need to read this.

- October 22, 2016 -


Presents 100-Day Plan To Make America Great Again – For Everyone

Gettysburg, PA: Today, in historic Gettysburg, PA, Donald J. Trump presented a game-changing plan for his first 100 days in office. This revolutionary “Contract with the American Voter” will ensure that America’s economy is revitalized and citizens are protected.

“I’m not a politician, and have never wanted to be one. But when I saw the trouble our country was in, I knew I couldn’t stand by and watch any longer. Our country has been so good to me, I love our country, I felt I had to act,” said Mr. Trump in his address.

“Change has to come from outside this broken system. The fact that the Washington establishment has tried so hard to stop our campaign is only more proof that our campaign represents the kind of change that only arrives once in a lifetime,” he continued.

“I am asking the American people to rise above the noise and the clutter of our broken politics, and to embrace that great faith and optimism that has always been the central ingredient in the American character. I am asking you to dream big.

“What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between Donald J. Trump and the American voter – and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington,” he concluded.

“Therefore, on the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:
  • FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;
  • SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);
  • THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;
  • FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;
  • FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
  • SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

On the same day, I will begin taking the following seven actions to protect American workers:
  • FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
  • SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
  • THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
  • FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately
  • FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.
  • SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward
  • SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure

Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:
  • FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama
  • SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States
  • THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities
  • FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back
  • FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:
1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.

2. End The Offshoring Act Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.

3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.

4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to gives parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.

5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-site childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.

7. End Illegal Immigration Act Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.

8. Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.

9. Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values

10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

On November 8th, Americans will be voting for this 100-day plan to restore prosperity to our economy, security to our communities, and honesty to our government.

This is my pledge to you.

And if we follow these steps, we will once more have a government of, by and for the people.”

Here is the critical fact about the coming election and Democrat talk of a "mandate." (It is the silly season, after all).

In a recent Times article,  the case is made for a swing-state landslide victory and an implicit mandate as a result of that election.  My problem with this is the fact that Democrats have proven,  over and over again,  that they do not believe in "mandated elections" if they are the victims of those elections.  

Case in point:  the 2014 election,  the worst defeat for Democrats since the 1920's,  a "mandate" by any definition, and,  an election result that was totally ignored by the Left.  "We had no turnout,  therefore we refuse to count the election as mandate."  That was their excuse.  Well,  if they are successful in repressing the Conservative/GOP  (the only path they have for victory) in the coming election,  "we" should and will make the same argument.  I have no intentions of ever giving honor or surrender to an election that fought and won in the gutter of American political strategies.  Ain't going to happen.  "Divisive,"  you say.  Well,  the Dems wrote the book on "divide and conquer."  As a result,  I say "What difference does it make?'   

New York Times:
Hillary Clinton Makes Pitch for Mandate and a Swing-State Sweep

About voter fraud - it exists but can only effect an extemely close election.

It only "works" on a district level.  It can effect a national campaign if that campaign needs a particular district to turn a state into an electoral victory.   It really has little effect on the larger, national vote count,  but,  again,  it is not the national vote that wins an election.  Elections are won or lost in district to district elections.  Example:  Win the vote in Pittsburgh and maybe you win Pennsylvania. 

Update:  You need to know that Democrats and Republicans are talking past each other in this discussion.  Fraud does occur in individual incidences and in certain districts  -  the GOP point.  It cannot substantially effect the national count, however  - the Democrat point. Lesson to be learned?  Let's stop trying to win the debate,  and admit that fraud can and does occur in the smaller-but-critical markets. 

Busing voters to a voting prescient is a form of voter fraud.  Busing only occurs in Democrat districts and is used as an opportunity to "school" the minority voter as to her intended vote.  THAT is fraudulent. 

Early voting can, also, be used in a fraudulent effort to sway a district election.  

But the case for "voter fraud" is most definitely found in the fact that all elections have precinct observers watching for fraud.  No potential fraud?  No need for the observers,  right?  

There are 1.7 million dead voters on our rolls.  There are 2.5 million folks registered in at least two states.  And there are 25  million voters with expired or useless registration information.  If you do not believe in "voter fraud,"  you are either too partisan walk up-right,  or you are part of the fraud issue.  

See you at the polls,  comrade.