The totals change a bit from year to year but the "norm" gives us this ratio: conservatives 35 and liberals 17 -- and this has been the case for decades. This year, both those numbers are higher because there is more interest in what is going on. The fact remains that the Obama victory has not changed anything with relation to the conservative/liberal mix of this country. When liberals celebrated the "death of conservatism," they could not have been further off the mark. When Senator Chuckie Schumer proclaimed the "death of 'traditional' values and a 'strong' foreign policy," we now know that he was actually talking through that rather large thing he sits on 90% of the day. Let's not forget that this same rhetoric, "conservatism is dead," was the victory shout of the day back in 1992, after the Clinton victory over George H. Bush.
What gives Democrats false hope is the fact that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. The chart on the left shows a "total" population divided into conservatives (38), moderates (37) and liberals (21 - a high water mark for libs) . This is a measurement of political preference apart from "party" politics. If the Dems do not understand this reality, they will continue to come into power every 15 years or so. Look, if the country votes in 2010 60/40 down ideological lines, the Dems will lose and lose big time. Where Obama and Company are running aground is in the following:
1. The youth vote will not turn out in big numbers regardless of what tricks Obama pulls to get them out. This group votes "liberal" but, typically, does not present a large voting block. And Obama has done nothing to effect the cost of their education. He rhetoric will reflect "'progress," but youth will look to actual costs and job opportunities and . . . . . . . . stay home.
2. The 30-49 year olds voted in Obama's favor in '08. Come November, they will vote their pocket book. Healthcare was a low level concern for this group, near the bottom of all polling results. Obama will lose this demographic come the midterms. 3.5 million men in the age group have already "switched" over. Keep in mind that Obama won the election by 9 million votes. This group, alone , represents a potential swing of 7 %.
3. The 50-64 and the 64 and up will destroy Obama in this election cycle. Promises broken will be an issue for this group. They are a very savvy political/voting block. They listen to talk radio, they care about healthcare and are afraid of what has been passed AGAINST THEIR WILL. Wall Street matters but not as much as some suppose. Wall Street's recovery is not seen as a plus for Obama - the anti-business candidate.
If you believe Obama will have a good time of it during the coming cycle (2010 and 2012), you also believe that the Gulf Oil Spill is no big deal, Dodgers will win the World Series and my first previously happy ex will someday say, "Dang, I wish I was still married to that guy."
(chart is from PEW Research; text is Midknight Reviews).
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