The following copy is taken from an email article coming from Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball," and written by Larry Kondik. The full article can be found at CenterForPolitics.com and is presented here, without edit, and lays out the difficulties the radicalized Democrat Party has in taking back the House of Representatives in the coming election. As Kondik points our, we are looking at the most partisan House in 100 years, with the fewest number of "crossover" representatives in a century. -- blog editor
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One needs little more than just fingers and toes to
count the number of House members who represent districts won by the other
party’s presidential candidate in 2012. As mentioned here previously, just 25
House members -- nine Democrats and 16 Republicans -- hold such “crossover”
districts. Compare that to 2004, when there were 59 such seats, or 2008, when
there were 83.
Both Democratic and Republican strategists are
going to start with these seats as they try to identify targets for the
upcoming campaign, but as is clear from a district-by-district analysis, many
of them are not particularly vulnerable.
Although the historical data are incomplete, the 25
crossover seats are probably the fewest number after a presidential election in
nearly a century. The group includes some of the longest-serving members of the
House, who have established deep roots that have allowed them to fend off
challengers and build strong identities in their districts. In many of these
districts, the challenging party simply must play a waiting game, hoping for a
retirement that creates an open seat contest.
The nine Democrats can generally be put into two
categories: newish members who barely won in 2012 and who present the most
attractive targets for Republicans in 2014, or moderate-to-conservative lifers
whose seats will be particularly vulnerable if the incumbent retires. The 16 Republicans,
meanwhile, are a bit more varied. A handful of these representatives -- like
Reps. Jeff Denham (R-CA) and Mike Coffman (R-CO) -- are relatively new members
who were elected to favorable districts that became more Democratic in last
cycle’s redistricting; others are long-time Republicans who dissuade
challengers through their seniority, but whose districts would also present
attractive targets in the event of a retirement; still more are members elected
as part of the 2010 wave -- like Reps. Chris Gibson (R-NY), Joe Heck (R-NV) and
Scott Rigell (R-VA) -- or through bad Democratic challenges (California Reps.
Gary Miller and David Valadao stand out in this category).
One cannot stress enough how the lack of crossover
seats benefits the Republicans; despite the fact that they hold a greater
number of crossover seats -- 16 for them to only nine for the Democrats -- the
Republicans could lose all their crossover seats and still hold a 218-217 House
majority. Democrats need to net a gain of 17 seats to win control of the
House next year.
According
to the Congressional Research Service,
the average length of service for House members at the beginning of the current
113th Congress was 9.1 years. The 25 crossover district holders have, on
average, served slightly longer -- 10 years -- than the average House member.
The 25 names below have widely varying years of service, though. More than half
(13/25) were in the House for four years or less as of January. These,
generally, are the more attractive targets.
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