The GOP could lose all contested seats in the House and still "own" the House by one vote.


The following copy is taken from an email article coming from Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball,"  and written by Larry Kondik.  The full article can be found at CenterForPolitics.com and is presented here,  without edit,  and lays out the difficulties the radicalized Democrat Party has in taking back the House of Representatives in the coming election.  As Kondik points our,  we are looking at the most partisan House in 100 years,  with the fewest number of "crossover" representatives in a century.  --  blog editor
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One needs little more than just fingers and toes to count the number of House members who represent districts won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2012. As mentioned here previously, just 25 House members -- nine Democrats and 16 Republicans -- hold such “crossover” districts. Compare that to 2004, when there were 59 such seats, or 2008, when there were 83.
Both Democratic and Republican strategists are going to start with these seats as they try to identify targets for the upcoming campaign, but as is clear from a district-by-district analysis, many of them are not particularly vulnerable.
Although the historical data are incomplete, the 25 crossover seats are probably the fewest number after a presidential election in nearly a century. The group includes some of the longest-serving members of the House, who have established deep roots that have allowed them to fend off challengers and build strong identities in their districts. In many of these districts, the challenging party simply must play a waiting game, hoping for a retirement that creates an open seat contest.
The nine Democrats can generally be put into two categories: newish members who barely won in 2012 and who present the most attractive targets for Republicans in 2014, or moderate-to-conservative lifers whose seats will be particularly vulnerable if the incumbent retires. The 16 Republicans, meanwhile, are a bit more varied. A handful of these representatives -- like Reps. Jeff Denham (R-CA) and Mike Coffman (R-CO) -- are relatively new members who were elected to favorable districts that became more Democratic in last cycle’s redistricting; others are long-time Republicans who dissuade challengers through their seniority, but whose districts would also present attractive targets in the event of a retirement; still more are members elected as part of the 2010 wave -- like Reps. Chris Gibson (R-NY), Joe Heck (R-NV) and Scott Rigell (R-VA) -- or through bad Democratic challenges (California Reps. Gary Miller and David Valadao stand out in this category).
One cannot stress enough how the lack of crossover seats benefits the Republicans; despite the fact that they hold a greater number of crossover seats -- 16 for them to only nine for the Democrats -- the Republicans could lose all their crossover seats and still hold a 218-217 House majority. Democrats need to net a gain of 17 seats to win control of the House next year.
According to the Congressional Research Service, the average length of service for House members at the beginning of the current 113th Congress was 9.1 years. The 25 crossover district holders have, on average, served slightly longer -- 10 years -- than the average House member. The 25 names below have widely varying years of service, though. More than half (13/25) were in the House for four years or less as of January. These, generally, are the more attractive targets.

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