Editor’s notes: I
found this article especially interesting.
While it accurately predicted the presidential election outcome, it offers a great deal of hope for the GOP
and its driving force, the conservative
tea-party grassroots movement, but not without some thoughtful changes.
The
Political/generational impact of the Great Recession.
There is the strong evidence that a minority-white/majority
non-white America favors the Dems long term, but history also says that an
extended "tough time" favors the GOP, especially when you remember
that the average voters behaves - over the course of his or her life - much
like a car-buyer, meaning your first "purchase" typically creates a
brand loyalty that is highly consistent over your life (meaning, it has an
imprinting function that is profound). Simple example: If the first
car you buy is a Ford, you will - on average - buy more Fords over the
rest of your life than any other car - hands down. Same is true in voting
for president.
Point being, while the demographic shift will still favor
Dems (as currently defined) against Republicans (as currently configured), this
long recession will have its own profound imprinting impact as well. I
see it in kids through the prism of my 20-year-old daughter (now in college).
They face a hostile labor market not unlike the one my generation faced
in the early 1980s. Between that point and 2008, college-age cohorts
faced a fantastically (in historical terms) consistent positive labor
environment. But my impression is that those days are gone - probably for good
given the competitive landscape now created by a maturing globalization.
So, again, you have your demographic trends and you have
your economic realities trend. Both are profound influencers. I'm just
saying nothing is carved in stone in terms of long-run trends, especially as I
expect both parties to be significantly reshaped by these dueling trends over
the next decade or so.
Still, I see little in any of these reports that convinces
me Obama will fall in the Fall.
If you enjoy reading geopolitical analysis,
read more at Wikistrat.
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