If turn-out is not critical, here are Rasmussen Reports thoughts on how this election might go.

From the beginning of the year to today, the fundamentals suggested the presidential election would be close. The president's job approval, which is a good predictor of his ultimate share of the vote, has stayed in a range of 47% to 50% all year. That, by itself, virtually guarantees a close election. On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney. 
 . . . . . . . . .   Today, the president can reasonably count on 237 Electoral College votes, while Romney can count on 206. Two states won by Obama four years ago are in the Romney column today - Indiana and North Carolina. 

Eight states, with a total of 95 Electoral College votes, remain toss-ups and will determine the winner: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,  Virginia and Wisconsin. All eight of those states were carried by Obama in 2008. 

Florida and Virginia are absolute must-win states for the Romney campaign. If the president wins either, the election will be his. It is quite reasonable to think the challenger can win these states but far from a sure thing. 

If he can win those two states, Romney will then have to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to stay in the game. 

Those who don't like uncertainty should focus on the congressional races. It appears that the Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate and Republicans to keep control of the House.  (you may want to review the entire Rasmussen  Reports  article).

Editor's notes:  in spite of all of the above,  this election will be won or lost on the basis of turn-out.  This is nothing new.  Turn-out has played a key factor in each of the presidential elections including 2008.  You should not forget that the margin of victory in 2008,  after out spending McCain two to one,  was only seven percent.