Stratfor Notes: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
1. Iran: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is coming to New York. We normally anticipate some meetings with U.S. administration officials, but they won’t happen. Ahmadinejad’s speech prior to leaving Iran blasted the United States, but the speech before that seemed to hold out some sort of promise of potential reconciliation. In other words, he is all over the place, as is his administration. Still, by our model, some sort of conversation should be taking place since the situation in Iraq is not evolving into a counterweight to Iran, and the United States does not want to leave combat forces in Iraq. If there was a time to talk, this is it, but it just doesn’t seem that the situation has matured to that point. Let’s track every move Ahmadinejad makes in New York, and the location of his staff and administration officials. Good luck on that. If there are going to be any meetings, they will be junior, quiet and impossible to track.
2. United States: The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming substantial. Assuming that it continues to evolve in this manner, it has two effects on offshore drilling: the immediate and the long term. The immediate is an ecological disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, plus a massive hit to British Petroleum, which appears to have accepted liability. The long-term effect is on whether offshore drilling will continue, and whether it will expand. This event will give a great deal of ammunition to opponents of offshore drilling, and weaken its supporters.
3. China: The Chinese have begun to move against companies committing commercial espionage. In part this may be a response to a spate of reports that the Chinese were engaged in industrial espionage. It may also be an attempt to limit the flow of information out of China. The lack of clarity about what exactly they mean by commercial espionage could leave foreign direct investment in China in shambles, since the normal process of deal evaluation and due diligence could potentially put companies at risk, along with accountants, lawyers and consultants. We need to see if we can figure out what the Chinese mean by espionage, and how far they will go with this. If the Chinese want to cut back on foreign direct investment, this is the way to do it, although why they would want to do that right now is unclear.
4. Greece: There will be a bailout for Greece. The problem with the bailout of course is that it requires that the Greeks impose a substantial degree of austerity measures, and it is not clear that the Greek government has the power to do that. They can pass laws, but whether they can compel Greeks to pay the taxes they owe is another story. If the Greeks will not or cannot carry out their end of the bargain, this will let the Germans and other Europeans off the hook. But then serious questions will arise about Portugal and Spain. So the decision to bail the Greeks out isn’t nearly as interesting as figuring out what happens next. Certainly, the story is far from over.
5. Venezuela: It is May and it was said that without rain by now, Venezuela’s hydroelectric system would fail. There was some rain, but it is unclear whether it was enough to solve the problem. We need to take a careful look at the weather in Venezuela, and the various scenarios playing off of it. President Hugo Chavez has managed tougher situations. Let’s see how he manages this one, and if there really is a situation to manage.
6. Russia: The Russians and Ukrainians appear to be talking about amalgamating energy industries, at least Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has raised the possibility and former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko has condemned it. Obviously, if our model is correct, and Ukraine is moving back into the Russian sphere of influence, then some version of this idea should go forward. Let’s see if anything comes of this.
No comments:
Post a Comment