What we have here is a graph picturing Obama's approval status with those who are deemed "most likely voters." It is important that you realize most polling services do NOT poll "most likelies." In fact, there is no assurance that they have polled "adults" at all !! Network news services such as ABC and cBS poll "adults" while Rasmussen and [often] Gallup quiz "most likely voters," which explains why Obama will poll so very differently, depending on the polling service and its methodology.
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Midknight Review uses Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, PEW Research, and TIPP but Rasmussen with greatest frequency.
Obama's chart begins with a 65% approval that fell to 60% almost immediately. . . . . a very normal circumstance. The last time his approval percentages were in the 60 percentile bracket was March 4, 2009. The Stimulus had been passed into law on February 17th and the healthcare debate was beginning. We did not realize that Obama and Company had allocated a near 1 billion for the healthcare panel and staff in the Stimulus, complete with the appointment of the 15 member panel. Because this expense was part of the Stimulus, Obama secured the strategy of "reconciliation" for healthcare passage. More than that, the healthcare bill would appear to be a billion dollars "cheaper" than actual costs because this money was included in the Stimulus.
By the end of June, 2009, Obama had fallen below 55% approval [June 29] , never to return to that level. The healthcare debate was heating up, the Stimulus bill, presented to the American people as a stop-gap measure with regard to unemployment, was proving to be a bust and 3 trillion dollars with a "t" had passed through the $700 billion TARP bill. You should know that the banking industry has passed somewhere between 24 trillion and 30 trillion dollars through this piece of legislation, passed by a Democrat Congress without any oversight from Congress, giving then Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, sole authority in the mediatation of TARP. In fact, not a penny of TARP funds has been used for Toxic Asset Relief.
On July 24, 2009, Obama hit the 49% approval mark, dipping below 50% for the first in his presidency. In that eventuality, Obama had "fallen from grace" faster than any previous President, a rather incredible circumstance.
On August, 10, 2009, Obama's approval rating among most likely voters fell below the 50% as a matter of course. In the following two months thru October 10th, Obama's approval numbers rose to 50% or better only 18 days out of the 61 intervening days. 10 of those days occurred in September.
His most consistent "bounce" during this period of time was as a result of his September 9th speech to a joint session of Congress. Beginning with September 12, Obama scored a 50% approval for 4 consecutive days. Midknight Review sees this speech as Obama's "coming out" speech. For the first time in recent history, a sitting President threatened his opponents with words like "we will call you out." His rhetoric turned partisan in an angry way. He has continued on that path since then -- perhaps because it gave him a slightly positive polling result. As noted above, he hit the 50% mark 10 days in September - his last "big" month.
Beginning with October 11, 2009, Obama has risen to 50% only 8 times out of nearly 6 months. During this time, he dipped to a record low of 43%. In fact, since the beginning of the year, he has hit the 44% mark 7 times and 43% on three occasions.
When his approval numbers were tracking at their highest levels, we must not forget that he won the '08 election by less than 7 % of the popular vote. With his declining polling numbers, Midknight Review believes that this margin of victory is long gone, that his party is in deep trouble with the approaching midterm elections (435 House of Representatives are up for election as well as 38 Senators) and Obama, himself, could not win re-election if November 2 was his re-election day.
What is most significant, in our opinion, is the fact that the passage of healthcare did not give Obama or his Socialist Democrat Party any serous bounce. While his approval numbers averaged 45% in March, they are now averaging 48% through April. The negatives have decreased some, but his approval numbers remain below the 50% mark and the nation seems to be hyper-critical of Congress in general and the Democrats in particular. Time will tell. --- text by jds.
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