Forget the national polls. Partisan votes and a measure of enthusiasm levels are the two critical predictive realities.

On Saturday,  Byron York,  gave us this summary and explanation answering the question,  "Why is the GOP destroying the DNC when it comes to raising money,  even when it comes to small donations  ($200 and under).  

The Republican president has a job approval rating around 40 percent. The GOP has an unfavorability rating around 56 percent. And Republicans trail Democrats by nine points in an average of "generic ballot" polls.

[Note:  You should know that Presidents are not elected by a national vote so much as they are elected by partisan votes  . . . . . .  and the GOP is winning in this category,  both in numbers willing to vote and those willing to give, large and small] 
 
All of which makes it notable that the Republican National Committee is trouncing the Democratic National Committee when it comes to raising money, especially from small donors.
The numbers are striking. In June, the RNC raised $13.5 million to the DNC's $5.5 million.
For 2017 so far, the RNC has raised $75.4 million to the DNC's $38.2 million.
The RNC started the year with $25.3 million in cash on hand. Now it has $44.7 million. The DNC started the year with $10.5 in cash on hand. Now, that has fallen to $7.5 million.
As of June 30, the RNC reported $0 in debt. The DNC reported $3.3 million in debt.
A look inside the numbers is even worse for the DNC. Looking at collections from small donors — that is, those who contributed less than $200 — the RNC raised $10.5 million in the months of May and June. The DNC raised $5.3 million from small donors in the same time period.
The RNC's money total is a record — more than was raised in any previous non-presidential election year. That is true for June, and for all of 2017 as well. The $75.4 million raised this year compares to $55.4 million for the same period in 2015; to $51.2 for the same period in 2014; to $41.1 million for the same period in 2013, and so on going back.
"It's definitely a reflection of support for President Trump," said RNC spokesman Ryan Mahoney. "Our small-dollar donors are giving at a record pace because they believe the RNC is supporting President Trump, and they like that."
__________________________________

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-why-are-republicans-trouncing-democrats-in-fundraising/article/2629435