Weather data versus theoretical weather "models" tell us that warming is more a myth than a reality . . . . so says a Duke University study. Grrrrr, those damned rightwingers at Duke !!!

Click to enlarger

 <<<  On the left, we have the analytical results  of actual physical evidence and observation,  versus,  on the right,  a consensus summary of mathematical equations called "weather models," used to scare folks over the past 20 plus years.  Turns out that satellite data trumps mathematical theory. 

 Here is the headline:

Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study

  • Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
  • It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
  • Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
  • These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report

The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel [the United Nations - editor] on Climate Change (IPCC).

'Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario [as opposed to a fearful and destructive warming trend - editor] is more likely, at least for now,' said Patrick Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University.

The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.
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at

9 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 25, 2015 at 6:42 PM

    From the study:
    "Under the IPCC’s middle-of-the-road scenario, there was a 70 percent likelihood that at least one hiatus lasting 11 years or longer would occur between 1993 and 2050, Brown said. “That matches up well with what we’re seeing.”

    Smithson says, "Our climate models are WRONG".

    The study PROVES the most likely scenario suggested by the IPCC is correct. All climate models carry a margin of error. The study proves the model was exactly correct, as the 'middle of the road' scenario has proven to be true. Notre the misinformation delivered by this blogger.

    Per normal here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John SmithsonApril 25, 2015 at 8:06 PM

      Smithson did not write the comparative charts, one based on empirical EVIDENCE and the other based upon theory/conjecture grounded in mathematical bias, An 11 year warming trend (you call it a "hiatus") does not match up with the current "haitus" of 18 years and running. All global warming is regional and a contradiction in realities. You say, the study proves . . ." when , in fact, the experts releasing the study argue that the crisis claims are not supported.

      When we stand back from the fear-mongering of the Left for the sake of wealth transfer, this study proves that weather is cyclical. Case closed.

      Delete
    2. John SmithsonApril 25, 2015 at 8:16 PM

      FYI, this blog does not give a hoot about a "global warming temp average."

      Every year, without exception, some regions of the US (and the world) are warmer than average while others are normal or colder than average . . . . . . every year.

      California is having a terrible drought, Texas, I believe is warmer than normal, Northern Oregon and points north are "normal," and the Mid West over to the Eastern Seaboard are having the coldest winter on record . . . . . . . regional, folks. There is no justification for taking all regional temps in this world, averaging them into a single number and then pretending that this average temp proves something. Retarded. If the opposition wants to challenge my statement, do it (!!!!) and stop talking about it. Give me a reason for averaging all regional temps.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousApril 25, 2015 at 8:24 PM

      Alinsky conspiracy!!!

      http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12
      http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warmest-january-march-global-temperatures-2015
      http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/03/18/record-warm-winter-globe/24957737/

      Delete
    4. John SmithsonApril 26, 2015 at 4:56 PM

      You already lost the argument. You can't justify the averaging of weather regions for the sake of a single number you then sell as "global warming," so no one is listening, anymore.

      Delete
    5. AnonymousApril 27, 2015 at 11:15 AM

      Says the creationist science denier... no one is listening anymore to the scientifically illiterate.

      Delete
    6. John SmithsonApril 27, 2015 at 4:06 PM

      In a recent poll by PEW, only 28 % of Americans think Regional Warming is a high prority threat compared to terrorism at 83% and job creation at 81%.

      Delete
  2. AnonymousMay 9, 2015 at 3:42 PM

    March 2015 was the warmest March since record-keeping began in 1880, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And the first quarter of 2015 was the warmest first quarter on record in those same 136 years.

    That gives 2015 a stab at trumping the hottest year on record -- which was 2014.

    Climate change is here and will only worsen. Get used to more flooding, wildfires and drought, depending on where you live.

    The uninterrupted continuation of the warming trend is no surprise. The 10 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 17 years.

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/09/world/global-warming-record-quarter/index.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John SmithsonMay 10, 2015 at 2:40 AM

      BS. The charts in my post, above, are generated by the Feds. The one on the left is empirical satellite date and the other, is the product of someone's mathematical modeling. Albuquerque just ended 183 consecutive days of under-70 degree weather, their longest stretch in NW history and Denver has had the longest winter (November through now) in its history. Its all regional, dude, and the fact that you cannot give me justification for averaging all regions and call it "global," proves just how silly you are with this.

      Delete

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