We should never forget that Obama took in 10 million fewer votes than in 2008, the most negative shift in popular opinion since Woodrow Wilson, 90 years ago. Add to that fact, the disturbing reality that nearly 4 million conservatives did not vote, that the McCain/Palin ticket captured more votes (2.5 million more) than the Romney/Ryan ticket. The final slap in the face is the fact that the McCain/Palin ticket captured more of the Mormon vote than did the Romney/Ryan ticket.
The following is taken in toto from the Dick Morris blog. He is right, of course, but, left unmentioned in his essay, are the facts of the hurricane, Sandy, and Obama's response to the storm (15% of voters said Obama's response was a primary consideration in their vote), and the strategical decision to leave ObamaCare and Libya out of the national debate. I do think this strategy was a mistake, but, at the time, there seemed to be good reasons for these omissions - blog editor.
Now, the closing remarks of the Morris essay:
. . . . . . . . . . . So if
ads and candidate campaigning did not move the dial, what did? Events.
The debates, the conventions,
the storm coverage, Benghazi, the state of the economy, jobs data and all other
events that affected all fifty states mattered. But the paid media, the
in-person campaigning in swing states, and the massive ground game deployed by
both sides accomplished nothing. Obama lost all the votes he was going to lose
anyway in the swing states and Romney gained of the votes he was going to gain
anyway in the swing states. Otherwise, how can one account for the virtually
identical change from ’08 to ’12 in all the states Obama carried, whether swing
states or not?
Two implications flow from
these data:
1. Television is losing its impact.
Particularly in the presidential race, it is astonishing that the almost one
billion dollars spent advertising in eight states did very little to move the
vote share. Voters are not watching television as much these days and those
that are still turning it on are fast forwarding through the ads. And negative
campaign ads — in fact, all ads, — are losing their impact.
2. Demographic voting is the new norm in
America. You vote based on who you are, not where you live or how well each
campaign has articulated its case. 93% of blacks, 70% of Latinos, 60% of those
under 30, and 62% of single people, voted for Obama. And white married couples
over 30 years of age voted for Romney. Not much else matters. A president who
was elected and re-elected through identity politics has brought about a state
of affairs where demographic voting determines the outcome. Our votes are
predictable based on our race, ethnicity, age, and marital status well before
anybody does any campaigning.
Even the vaunted ground games
of the two parties didn’t do much. Voter turnout was eleven million lower than
in 2008 — reversing the upward trends of the past four elections — and Obama’s
vote share change from ’08 to ’12 was about the same in states where vigorous
get out the vote campaigns raged and in those where they did not.
It is bad enough that America
is now divided into red and blue states. It is divided into red and blue people
as well based, not on their opinions, but on their demographics.
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