More funny Numbers: Weekly first time claims report -- 339,000 BUT its revision, coming next week, could take this number well above 350,000. Here is the problem.


CNBC gives this report:   

The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted to 339,000 last week, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up.
The Labor Department said weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the lowest level since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low.
Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.
The decline adds to other evidence that hiring is improving. Last week's jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent, the first time it has fallen below 8 percent since January 2009. . . . 

Editor's notes:  this would be an encouraging note except for one little fact:  as it turns out,  one important state did not report its numbers,  at all.  Which state?  The Department of Labor did not say.  Understand that all of these weekly reports except one,  over the past four years,  have been revised upward.  The 339,000 number will be revised upward,  by this time next week.  Typically,  that "correction" will be 2,000 to 4,000.  In this case,  that would bring the current weekly report to 342,000.  Add in the one "significant" state's numbers,  and we could have a weekly report of more than 350,000.  

________________________

From ZeroHedge.com:


"This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC's Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures." Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise. It is also sad that the US "economy" has devolved to such trivial data fudging on a week by week basis, which makes even the Chinese Department of Truth appear amateurish by comparison. . . ."


No comments:

Post a Comment