A reasonably accurate picture of current [critical] state by
state voting trends. Source: Nerd Wallet Markets.
| Current Polling | Probability of | Romney's Votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral Votes | Romney | Obama | Romney Winning | Expectation | Binary |
| Colorado | 9 | 48% | 47% | 52% | 4.7 | 9 |
| Florida | 29 | 47% | 47% | 51% | 14.8 | 29 |
| Iowa | 6 | 46% | 49% | 37% | 2.2 | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 44% | 50% | 24% | 3.8 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 49% | 45% | 68% | 6.8 | 10 |
| Nevada | 6 | 46% | 49% | 35% | 2.1 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 45% | 50% | 29% | 1.2 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 49% | 46% | 63% | 9.5 | 15 |
| Ohio | 18 | 46% | 49% | 40% | 7.2 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 43% | 45% | 38% | 7.6 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 48% | 48% | 49% | 6.4 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 45% | 51% | 23% | 2.3 | 0 |
| Safe Romney | 181 | 100% | 181 | 181 | ||
| Safe Obama | 201 | 0% | 0 | 0 | ||
| *Polling data last updated on October 10, 2012 | TOTAL ROMNEY | 250 | 244 | |||
| Electoral votes NEEDED TO WIN: 270 | ||||||
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