Here are the reasons why this election could be a blow-out for the GOP.


<<<<  Here is my prediction for the 2012 election:  Romney wins with 71 million votes.  Obama loses with 53 million votes.  I "crunched" the numbers more than two years ago.  That total was very nearly the same as my current prediction.  Consider the following:  

You know things are not going swimmingly when the extremely partisan Boston Globe is giving us this story:  
Across Florida on Wednesday, President Obama’s campaign scheduled 53 field events to register voters. Last weekend in Virginia, there were at least 78 such events — typical of drills in the past several months on behalf of the incumbent Democrat in the battleground states that are likely to decide the Nov. 6 election.
But a Globe analysis of voter registration data in swing states reveals scant evidence that the massive undertaking is yielding much fresh support for Obama.
In stark contrast to 2008, when a strong partisan tailwind propelled Democratic voter registration to record levels, this year Republican and independent gains are far outpacing those of Democrats.
Add to this stark report the fear that as many a 30 million 2008 voters will not return to the polls in 2012,  most of which (80%) voted  "Obama,"  the fact that the white vote has dropped from 43% to 26% in the latest report, that Black support has dropped from 95% to 81%,  that the youth vote, favoring the GOP,   has moved from 26% in '08 to 40% as I write,    that the military vote is running 59 to 35 percent against Obama,  and give Romney has a 26 point lead with independents in Florida,  and you have an extremely worried Democrat leadership.    

Understand that "turn-out" is as critical an influence in this election as are the stats presented above.  The decline in the white vote,  alone,  makes re-election almost impossible.  Now we know that Obama is finding it impossible to gin up the voting fringe,  and,  when it is all said and done,  it was the fringe vote - folks who seldom go to the polls - that put in office.  

Number crunch:  

In 2008,  Obama took in 69,5 million votes to McCain's 60.4 million.  

Pew Research Center
I assume this turnout to optimum for particular day and time.  That being postulated,  I would not expect as high a turnout as in 2008,  especially for the Left.  There simply is no way Obama is more popular today,  than he was in 2008.  

Understand that while the Left's vote total was inflated because of Obama and the historic nature of that election,  the Right's vote total was hardly at "maximum."  the 2008 election was about two things,  (1) the novelty that was Obama, and (2) the rebellion within the GOP that had been building (demonstrably)  since the 2006 election,  an election that gave the Congress back to the Democrats. 

Consequently,  in 2008,  voter enthusiasm was up for the Left and down for the GOP.  The very opposite is the case,  today.  

As to the numbers, themselves:  

First we have the totals for the following ethnic groups - 

The white vote totaled 99.1 million of the 130 million votes cast in 2008.  42.65 million voted for Obama.  If the white percentage has dropped to 26%,  only 25.7 million will vote for Obama  -  a drop of 17 million votes.  He won the election with a margin of 9.5 million.  He has already lost the election if this projection is anywhere close to be accurate.  Understand that a huge percentage of these voters will be swing votes,  doubling this electoral disaster.  

The black vote totaled 12.1 of the total votes cast (130 million or 15.1 million votes.  95% of that vote (14.94 million) went to Obama.  If his support has dropped to 81%  (12.2 million),  he has lost 3 million votes in this demographic.  Understand that his decision to support gay marriage was most unpopular with the black community  -  and he will lose votes because of that Left-handed decision  --  by my count,  at least 3 million.   

Other considerations include the fact that recent surveys give Romney/Ryan 40% of the youth vote,  compared to 32 % in 2008.  Understand that 18% of the 130 million vote (23 million) total was "youth"  and Obama took 66% of that vote.  

In the end and as things stand today,  Obama has lost 3 million of the '08 youth vote.  No one is talking about "rocking the vote."  You hear nothing about the huge youth support system Obama put into place in the first campaign.  

Anyway,  I am probably taking you all too far into the weeds,  on this report.  Suffice it to say that at every turn,  with every report,  the Obama campaign is nothing like the 2008 effort.  He is headed for a train wreck,   along with his party and -- it appears -- that the die has already been cast,  weeks before the election.  

1 comment:

  1. Just on the face of it, 71 million vs 53 is ridiculous. This absolves me from making a detailed counter argument, but i will leave you with this tidbit.
    Rmeny has NEVER led in the national polls, NOR in the swing states.
    Now, that's not to say Rmoney can't win, he can, if he manages to suppress enough of the black vote, but your numbers are ridiculous.
    Voter suppression:
    In Ohio, Republican governor and AG said that republican/white counties could vote from 7AM till 9PM, but for largely Democrat counties the polls were open 9AM till 5 PM.

    Luckily, the Dems sued and they won, but this gives you a taste to which lengths they will go.
    And ... many Blacks may not like gay marriage, but they won't stay home over it, keep dreaming.

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