Palin's Candidacy: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

One of our favorite pictures of the Governor. The reason why her opponents are so committed to her demise? First, she believes in God and the existential secular Marxist community (that would be the Democrat leadership) does not. Secondly, they know exactly where she is coming from in terms of policy. In Palin, conservative politics are well defined, if not beautifully packaged. "What you see is what you get" is not more true than in our consideration of Sarah Palin. With Obama, after two years, we still do not know all that is to be known about this novice in our White House.

Our editorial review of Palin, Obama and the 2012 elections. Happy News Year

Indeed, there is a poll out there that puts Sarah Palin 22 points behind Obama. We have talked about this particular circumstance before. Of course, she is not 22 points behind. Why are we confident in making that assertion? Well, for starters, that polling number (from Quinnipiac) is one that stands alone. No other major poll is even close. More than that, the construct of the single polling question giving us this number is nowhere to be found; neither do we know the demographics of this poll (18-30 year olds vs 30-55 and seniors; percentage of Dems vs Republicans; working class citizens vs the entitlement crowd; citizens vs illegals). We dismiss this poll with gusto . . . . . but !!! , we do admit she is running behind Obama in all polls. That's the ugly.

The bad: she is running near at the top of most polls with regards her place in GOP politics. Understand this , the "major media" is busy in its effort to frame the coming election.

Within minutes of the midterm "shellacking" of Obama and his Marxist Radicals, the press was calling him "the come back kid." We expect this silliness to continue for the next two years. Obama will be credited as being the "bipartisan" Washington influence, the man in the middle working to bring both sides together. Never mind the fact that the New GOP, in the Senate, left him no choice when it came to several issues that confronted Obama in the Lame Duck congress. Never mind that he held only three meetings with GOP in the past two years not including the Lame Duck session. No president in history has exemplified this degree of partisanship. He and his Marxist buds ruled as if the other side did not count. Fine, but we must not forget this unmitigated fact.

At the same time, the Marxist media will pursue its strategy of journalist collusion against Sarah Palin. They call or write each other daily. They take talking point cues from the Wash Post and NY Times. They radicalize their opposition with junk journalism such as ThinkProgress, the Daily Beast and the Huffington Post. They popularize their assault on the Governor in the accepted network media (NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, HLN, AND MSNBC). And they are not afraid to lie and do so as a collective.

The good
Back to Sarah. It may come down to this, a decision by no one but Sarah as to the historicity of the 2012 elections. Winning the nomination is one thing. Winning the election is something very different and much more important. After is it all said and done, Palin may have enough support to give her the nomination but not the election. If that is true, she is the only one who can stop the Palin Express. She, and she alone, may have to make one of the most important political decisions in American modern history. There is no doubt that Establishment Republicans are seriously concerned about her candidacy. As things stand at this writing, she may be the front runner for the nomination but without the ability to beat Obama. The readership , here , is reminded of our support for the Governor, but reality is reality. What is critical, here, is Palin's understanding of both the importance of this coming presidential election and her role in the election. In the end, she may be the only one to stop Palin, at the National Convention in May, of 2012.

Does she refuse the nomination if the polling does not improve? That is a question only she can answer, of course. Her decision is complicated by the fact that polls are never the final word, nor are they always accurate projections of what is about to happen in a particular election. I am reminded of the Dole/Clinton election. Dole got the nomination when everyone in the GOP knew he was not going to win. At least, that was the commonly held perception. Election Eve, ABC put out a poll that carried over into election day: "Clinton up by 22 points." Dole lost by 8%. In my mind, there will always be the question of the media's role in the devaluation of Dole's viability. Could he have won had the press stopped with their lies and fake polling numbers? Probably not, but we will never know, will we. But, for certain, the media will play the same game with Palin or whoever the GOP candidate is.

I do not think Palin can win the election without committing to a head to head confrontation with Obama. Debate is one avenue. I believe she would do quite well in a series of debates with Obama. He is wrong on so many issues and critically so. And she did just fine against Joe Biden.

If she were to win the nomination, we cannot overstate the importance of her acceptance speech. Anyone remember Richard Nixon's acceptance speech? I hated the guy but that particular speech was one of the best of all time. Seriously. Can she give that kind of speech. Ohhhh, you betcha !! She has proven herself in this regard with her acceptance speech for VP in 2008. In fact, most believe that speech was the highlight of the entire conference.

By the way, while the Establishment GOP has their diapers all in a bunch over the Palin nomination, they should not forget that it was the Establishment GOP that gave us John McCain and Robert Dole, losers from "the get go" in the past two presidential elections.

A third avenue of confrontation will be the nature and scope of her public appearances. Will she get the kind of media coverage she will deserve as the GOP candidate? Will there be those in the major media who "cave in" and give her ideas and stated policies serious credit (Hint: that has already happened in some liberal circles,folks) ? Palin "shoots from the hip." As a consequence, her commentary is not as "smooth" as Obama, but it is honest and original -- two aspects of Obama's speech technique that are lacking for Der Slickmeister. Will this help are hurt her candidacy? Only time will tell.

A fourth confrontational factor will be the impact of the conservative media. This is not being considered by anyone who is forecasting 2012 election results. Understand this: Palin may need 65 to 70 million votes to win. McCain got 60 million versus Obama's 69.5 million. The TEA party should bring in at least 30 million votes. Limbaugh's crowd is around 25 million. Hannity's is 17 million. Mark Levin and Huge Hewitt and Michael Savage and et al come in around 10 million on average, each. Total these up and you come up with 100 million people. Of course, there is great overlap with these groupings. The question, then, is "how much?" Are there 70 million different voters in these totals? Conservative punditry is vast and organized and will play a major role in the coming election. Meet Sarah Palin and Midknight Review are two proud members of the conservative bloggosphere that intends to make a difference.

Conversely, how many will Obama have? It will not be 69.4 million. That is one thing of which I am most confident. Let's put his victory into context as we consider Palin's viability, shall we? The vote differential of the 2008 election was 9.6 million. That is close to a 7% victory margin. A "swing" of just 5 million votes from Obama to Palin would win this election for our FeNom. More than that, his 2008 victory cost him three quarters of a billion (with a B ), more than double the McCain contributions of $370 million. Since that election, Obama has lost as much as a million votes in the Jewish community. These will not be swing voters but their disappointment in Obama will cost him. He has lost 5% of his white male vote or 3.5 million swing votes, 12% of the white woman vote, 15% of the Hispanic vote, 15% of the "youth" vote, 6% of the Black vote, 5% of the Asian vote and 20% of the Independent vote.

A final demographic consideration, one that receives absolutely no press, is the fact that somewhere between 6 and 10 million conservatives, McCain haters all, stayed away from the polls in 2008. These are the folks that saw the GOP as a party having lost its way. This is no small factor. The coming election will see these people voting and voting as a conservative block. They were nowhere to be found in 2008, sending a message to the Liberal GOP Establishments that went something like this: "Go ahead and try winning an election without us conservatives." As much as the Trent Lock/ John McCain/Romney types think conservatives have seen their last days, the Establishment "Conservatives" do not get to play their deceptive games without being put on notice. The GOP is the Conservative Party. That is a lesson that has not been fully embraced by the Establishment, but it is a lesson that will be a factor in the coming years.

With all of the above, with Palin as the nominee, the 2012 election is up for grabs, no matter what the Marxist pundits say. Obama is one of the most feared politicians in American history, one of the most partisan in American history, one of the most committed socialists in American history, and one of the most dishonest presidents in American history. Let's not pretend that he is a lock for 2012 if Palin is the nominee.