Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Thursday, the jobs numbers for October are in and the Trump economy remains the best n modern American history.

Gateway Pundit analysis:   Jobs, Jobs, Jobs! October Jobs Numbers Show Increase of 128,000 and Unemployment Stays at Historic Low 3.6% – 9 Million More Jobs Than Obama at Same Time In Presidency!

2017 was the year of the stock market, 2018 was the year of the worker and 2019 is continuing with arguably the best economy in US history.

Job numbers released today through the end of October show an increase of another 128,000 jobs! And the unemployment rate remains at historic lows of 3.6%!

The White House continues to report that this economy could arguably be the best all time.  This is because it is.

According to data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, President Trump has added more than 6.5 million jobs in his first term.
The same cannot be said for President Obama as during the same time he lost (2.3) million jobs. Obama was so bad at creating jobs that by the end of his second term he said that jobs were not coming back. This showed in his first two years with millions of lost jobs.

Overall President Trump has gained nearly 9 million more jobs than Obama in their respective first two and three quarter years in office!
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, under President Trump more Americans are in the work force than ever before. President Trump is working hard to bring good paying jobs back to the US and his efforts are showing historic results.
Also according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the US unemployment rate stands at 3.6%.

Unemployment rate for April has some very good news and some very bad news:

58 share 

Updated for "related" and chart on the labor force.   

Good news:  Unemployment rate fell 4/10 of a percent in the single 30 day period,  6.3% , down from 6.7%  . . . .   the lowest rate (by hook and crook) in 5.5 years.  I say "by hook and crook" because the numbers used to justify today's report,  are not the same as those used 5 years ago.

Like I wrote,  by hook and crook, this is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008.  A solid 288,000 jobs were created in April,  the most since mid-2012,  and,  the March jobs report was revised upward by 36,000 [more] jobs, and this is very good news.  

Unfortunately,  all this good news is clouded by the following facts:

GDP for the 1Q of this year,  came in at a nominal zero.  The actual reported number was .1% which is "zero" growth,  in my book.  A penny on the dollar would be 1% growth.  A 1/10 of a penny?  Common folks  . . . . .   THAT is "zero" in the real world.

Of the 3 million jobs created in the past two years,  we know that 2 million are low paying and minimum wage jobs while one million high paying jobs ($17.00 per hour and higher) have been lost.

Labor participation rate, i.e. "our workforce,"  is in its
sharpest decline in half a century.  Maybe we would
be better off,  if Obama stop trying to create jobs, no? 
More bad news:  The unemployment drop,  the highest rate of decrease in a decade (6.3
down from 6.7) is,  primarily, is due to a monumental drop in the labor participation rate,  down from 63.2% to 62.8% as 800,000 Americans left the labor force and were not counted into any other employment/unemployment numbers.  Fewer Americans,  percentage wise,  are working today,  than were working in 1978,  under Jimmy Carter,  a 36 year low.  86 million folks are working full-time versus 146 million Americans who are drawing income from some sort of entitlement,  including food stamps, Social Security, Medicare, unemployment benefits, housing and income subsidies.

Of course,  H Obama will brag about the (U-3) unemployment rate but that is because he knows nothing about jobs creation and has no experience as to national finance, either educationally or in a practical since. What is disturbing about this last observation,  is the fact that Obama,  after 5 years,  has learned nothing about the relationship between the horde of regulations and associated uncertainties versus to the need for planning and free choice within the business community.

The good news,  in a final since of that term,  is found in the reality that our private sector,  capitalist economy,  will find a way to succeed in spite of  Central "Planning."  Problematic to this fact,  is the rate of success,  which is effected by feckless,  governmental meddling.  At some point in time,  that "rate of success" will no longer have the ability to "float all boats."  

Trickle down economics is the way an economy works  . . . .   the only way.  But,  as long as we are lead by folks with no practical experience or training in economic matters,  we will continue to see downward pressure on our quality of life.  Like they say,  "When everyone draws the same benefits or income,  everyone is equally poor."
__________________

Related:

An European view of the unemployment picture in the US:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10805350/Shocking-US-jobs-data-impugns-recovery-Fed-tapering.html

In spite of the fact that unemployment is higher than when Obama first took office in 2009, he continues with his embarrassing rewrite of the truth.



From out friends at Zero Hedge:
. . .Since his inauguration, the US has generated just 841,000 jobs through November 2012, a number is more than dwarfed by the 17.3 million new foodstamps and disability recipients added to the rolls in the past 4 years. And since the start of the depression in December 2007, America has seen those on foodstamps and disability increase by 21.8 million, while losing 3.6 million jobs. End result: total number of foodstamp recipients as of November: 47.7 million, an increase of 141,000 from the prior month, and reversing the brief downturn in October, while total US households on foodstamps just hit an all time record of 23,017,768, an increase of 73,952 from the prior month. The cost to the government to keep these 23 million households content and not rising up? $281.21 per month per household. 

Editor’s notes:  these are the facts coming from the Congressional Budget Office.  Obama wants you to believe that his 2009 “stimulus” bill created 3 million “net” jobs.  He forgets about all those who have gone onto food relief;  the 8 million who have gone on disability and the 8.8 million who have completely dropped out of the workforce.  While he continues to blow,  he wants you to forget that the unemployment rate is higher today,  than when he took office in 2009,  at the beginning of “the worst recession in history.”  His own facts deny the truth of what he is telling the American people. 

Obama used the Department of Labor to scam unemployment numbers. Now, after the election, the truth comes out.

Point of post:  honest estimates as to job loss due to the hurricane,  Sandy,  is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000.  You will hear this number used by defenders of Obama.  As you listen to the BS from the Obama camp,  remember that those jobs were lost AND COUNTED in the first week's report.  Statistically,  first time claims because of Sandy (it hit New York October 29 - 30) have very little to do with the last two reports.  

You have been scammed by the Obama BS Re-election machine. Once again,  we have elected a Democrat who has never run a fruit stand,  and the beat goes on.  Thanks for nothing,  Democrats.  This is all on you and those who voted for your "policies,"  unstated as they may be.
WEEK ENDING Advance Nov. 24 Nov. 17 Change Nov. 10 Prior Year1

Initial Claims (SA) 393,000 416,000 -23,000 451,000 399,000



The above comes directly from the Department of Labor site.  In the above case,  DoL is reporting on weekly unemployment claims.  Understand that these are folks who have lost their jobs,  for the first time in over a year.  Before the election,  the DoL was reporting numbers in the 350,000 range and Obama was saying,  "We tried their way and it didn't work.  We tried it our way,  and it did work."  And the illiterate voter,  the Democrat one toothers among us,  said "See,  he really is a genius."  

Turns out that the first report following the election was not 339,000 or 350,000 (as before the election).  Instead,  that first post-election report was a whopping 451,000 --  83,000 more than "expected!!"    The second report [following the election] was finalized at 416,000 and this week's number (393,000) will be close to 400,000 by the time the DoL fully discloses its first time claims.  

Point of post:  honest estimates as to job loss due to the hurricane,  Sandy,  on all this,  is somewhere between 25,000 to 45,000.  You will hear this number used by defenders of Obama.  As you listen to the BS from the Obama camp,  remember that those jobs were lost AND COUNTED in the first week's report.  Statistically,  first time claims because of Sandy (it hit New York October 29 - 30) have very little to do with the last two reports.  

You have been scammed by the Obama BS Re-election machine.  Once again,  we have elected a Democrat who has never run a fruit stand,  and the beat goes on.  Thanks for nothing,  Democrats.  This is all on you and those who voted for your "policies,"  unstated as they may be.   

8.3%? Not really and here is why.

Updated text:
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN: Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest in Three Years...


The jobless rate fell from 8.5% to 8.3% on the wings of 243,000 jobs created.  So goes the story.  

Click on image to enlarge

So,  why are so many not all that excited?   For starters,  36.7% of those old enough and able to work  are not . . . . . . . . . working.  As of this past January, we are looking at the highest percentage of non-working working class citizens since the 1930's.  You may not believe this number,  but 1.7  million folks left the workforce in the same month we are touting the 8.3 unemployment percentage,  January, according to the Department of Labor (cf DoL pdf, p8).   

The 2nd chart,  my home grown adaptation of the original,  actually has "Reagan"  misplaced.  As you well know,  Reagan came into power following the Carter years and a recession  with higher negatives in many categories than the current recessionary period.  The Reagan Recovery saw the fastest increase in the workforce in history.  By contrast, the Obama Recovery (that is what he is calling this thing,  right ??) includes the sharpest decline in the size of the workforce [also] in history.  

In the second year of the Obama Recovery (2010),  much like the Reagan Recovery,   there was an increase in the size of the workforce (April of 2010)  . . . about the time Biden announced that the recession was over and introduced  us to his  "Summer of Recovery."    But,  unlike Reagan's recovery, Obama's policies failed within weeks, literally,   and the remainder of the "recovery years" has been a disaster with the work force at its lowest percentage of the total number of folks able to work  (63.7) in decades  [see chart immediately below with Department of Labor stats,  for a comparison of the past 10 year totals].  


Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
President
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
Bush.. 43 
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9

2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9

2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0

2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4

2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0

2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
66.0
65.8
65.8

2009
65.7
65.8
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.0
65.0
64.6
Obama.. 
2010
64.8
64.9
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.6
64.4
64.5
64.3
Obama.. 
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.1
64.0
64.1
64.1
64.1
64.0
64.0
Obama.. 
2012
63.7











Obama.. 


Unemployment went down because [in part] 1.7 million people left the work force,  to fend for themselves. Understand that I am telling you that 1.7 million left the official "workforce"  in just one month. [In December,  50,000 dropped off the roles.  In November,  350,000 left the public workforce.]  Some went on welfare of some sort; the younger adult crowd moved back in with their parents;   others went to work "under the table,"  not reporting their wages in return for not having to report their income.  Still, others went to work for themselves,  again,  making money "under the table."  More than 5 million Americans have opted out of the public workforce since Obama took office, preferring one of the several options listed above.  There are 89 million able bodied adults no longer figured in the "unemployment" numbers (see ZeroHedge for more discussion).  


Remember Obama coming up with the bright idea of forcing everyone who paid out $600 or more for anything,  food,  gas, lawn care,  property clean-up, helping a family move  . . .   whatever,  to fill out and report these transactions on a 1099 form?   It was part of ObamaCare and was to go into effect this month (Jan 2012).  Of course,  the logistics of such an asinine provision made the law impossible to enforce,  a laughable bit of idiocy coming from the fertile mind of Obama.    


As an example of just how nonsensical this proposition would have been,  I have a friend who drives truck cross country.  With this law,  he would have had to keep all receipts for  diesel  and record them separately,  per each gas station at which he purchased fuel,  just in case he bought $600 of fuel over the course of the year from any one of those stations.  


What Obama was trying to accomplish was this:  he knew the workforce was "shrinking," that these folks didn't just disappear;  they were making a living some way.  So he tried to tax the "underground economy"  (more power to those folks,  btw) via the 1099 idea,  a task that proved to be impossible.  

Update and end notes:  the U6 unemployment number is 15.3% (folks unemployed but on benefits and those who are underemployed) or around 19 million Americans,  in addition to the 89 million "doing their own thing,"  working in the growing labor force that is the American Underground.  

Point of post:  to give context to all this "good" news we heard,  today (Friday, Jan 3rd)).  When 1.7 million people leave the workforce in a single month,  a lower unemployment rate (8.3% in this case) is hardly the good news we had hoped it might have been. . . . . . . . . . .   And I haven't discussed the 2.3 million people who lost jobs in January,  but,  because of the process known as "seasonal adjustments,"  we are being told that 243,000 jobs were created.  While "seasonally adjusted" might be an important process,  still,  2.3 million working in December have been laid off in January.  


Conclusion:  its a terrible, terrible mess. 


Related story:  see this short CNBC video news story :  SANTELLI: Here's What's Wrong With Data...