Showing posts with label shrinking workforce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shrinking workforce. Show all posts

Which is it: 7 million jobs created or 3.6 million folks back at work?

<<<  As to GDP and job creation,  this "recovery" is without either.  We discuss "joblessness" in this brief.  

Update:  you should know that last months negative 2% figure for GDP ended the Obama claim to fame for consecutive months of economic growth at 49 months.  The Bush economy has the record of 52 consecutive months of GDP expansion.  

Original content begins here: 

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 142,152,000 million people employed in January 2009.  In May 2014, the latest month on record, there were 145,814,000 people employed–an increase of 3,662,000 million.

He brags about 7/8 million jobs created,  since his inauguration.  What he does not bother to tell anyone is this:  his “7 or 8 million jobs created” does not include the number of jobs lost,  during this same period of time,  a critical omission.

Understand that the so-called “recovery” has produced only 3,6662,0oo (million) net jobs,  not 7 to 8 million.  “people employed” and “net jobs created” are terms that deal with the very same circumstance. 

In the end,  we are in the midst of a jobless recovery,  with the lowest percentage of the workforce employed,  since the late 1970’s.  Obama knows this.  Consequently,  all Obama statements presenting the notion of a vibrant recovery,  are as false as a Russian lie. 

Approximately 7 million NET jobs were lost over the years,  many of them  (several million) lost due to the heavy tax and regulation burden of this Administration.  This stat,  the 7 million NET jobs lost,  is not offset with the number’s Obama spouts.  His “7 million” translates to 3.6 million folks put back to work. 


Anyone see the problem?  

While we moan and groan about the declining Ameridcan birthrate, maybe someone needs to start thinking about the 40 year decline in the American workforce.



From Pew:  


The U.S. birth rate dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression, led by a drop among immigrants, according to a report data released Thursday by the Pew Research Center.
 

In 2011, the overall birth rate was 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age, the lowest since at least 1920, Pew reported, citing numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics. The birth rate reached 122.7 in 1957, the peak of the Baby Boom. After the mid-1970s, the birth rate stabilized at about 65 to 70 births per 1,000 women annually, until the beginning of the Great Recession.

Since 2007, both the U.S. birth rate (the number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15-44) and the number of births have dropped significantly, according to the report.

Overall, the birth rate declined 8 percent from 2007 to 2010.  Among U.S.-born women, the birth rate dropped 6 percent. The decline among foreign-born women was 14 percent. Among Mexican women, the birth rate fell even more, to percent.  


Editor's notes:  forget the ethnic demographics and think "workforce."  

What is not even hinted at in the PEW report is the fact that the birth rate decline has been going on since the 1960's.  In fact,  2000 recorded the lowest American birth rate since the Great Depression.  The downward trend in population growth is, of course,  a downward trend in the national workforce.  The two are inexorably connected at the hip.

Problem:  with the Left's penchant for increasing the welfare roles,  the 40 year tread in population/workforce decline has become critical.  Like it or not,  a socialist society absolutely must have a substantial workforce or it cannot exist.  Wealth is earned and it is earned by  those who actually get off their butts and work.  A marked downward trend in the workforce combined with a sharp increase in Obama's welfare buds, spells financial doom.  

Understand that the payouts to Social Security benefactors will be borrowed money in two years, and,  the unfunded total for Medicare was increased to 42 trillion by the CBO this past week.  

While the Chief Moron is playing political games,  he has already run out of time in his developing Utopian dream.  For every 165 people drawing some form of welfare or entitlement payment,  there are only 100 workers in this country. 

I can hardly wait for one of you yellow dog Democrats to remind me how stupid conservatives are.  What is funny is the fact that we conservatives get the problem and the big spending libs have no clue. 

  

8.3%? Not really and here is why.

Updated text:
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN: Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest in Three Years...


The jobless rate fell from 8.5% to 8.3% on the wings of 243,000 jobs created.  So goes the story.  

Click on image to enlarge

So,  why are so many not all that excited?   For starters,  36.7% of those old enough and able to work  are not . . . . . . . . . working.  As of this past January, we are looking at the highest percentage of non-working working class citizens since the 1930's.  You may not believe this number,  but 1.7  million folks left the workforce in the same month we are touting the 8.3 unemployment percentage,  January, according to the Department of Labor (cf DoL pdf, p8).   

The 2nd chart,  my home grown adaptation of the original,  actually has "Reagan"  misplaced.  As you well know,  Reagan came into power following the Carter years and a recession  with higher negatives in many categories than the current recessionary period.  The Reagan Recovery saw the fastest increase in the workforce in history.  By contrast, the Obama Recovery (that is what he is calling this thing,  right ??) includes the sharpest decline in the size of the workforce [also] in history.  

In the second year of the Obama Recovery (2010),  much like the Reagan Recovery,   there was an increase in the size of the workforce (April of 2010)  . . . about the time Biden announced that the recession was over and introduced  us to his  "Summer of Recovery."    But,  unlike Reagan's recovery, Obama's policies failed within weeks, literally,   and the remainder of the "recovery years" has been a disaster with the work force at its lowest percentage of the total number of folks able to work  (63.7) in decades  [see chart immediately below with Department of Labor stats,  for a comparison of the past 10 year totals].  


Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
President
2002
66.5
66.8
66.6
66.7
66.7
66.6
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.6
66.4
66.3
Bush.. 43 
2003
66.4
66.4
66.3
66.4
66.4
66.5
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9

2004
66.1
66.0
66.0
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.1
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.0
65.9

2005
65.8
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.0
66.0

2006
66.0
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.2
66.3
66.4

2007
66.4
66.3
66.2
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
65.8
66.0
65.8
66.0
66.0

2008
66.2
66.0
66.1
65.9
66.1
66.1
66.1
66.1
65.9
66.0
65.8
65.8

2009
65.7
65.8
65.6
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.5
65.4
65.1
65.0
65.0
64.6
Obama.. 
2010
64.8
64.9
64.9
65.1
64.9
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.6
64.4
64.5
64.3
Obama.. 
2011
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.1
64.0
64.1
64.1
64.1
64.0
64.0
Obama.. 
2012
63.7











Obama.. 


Unemployment went down because [in part] 1.7 million people left the work force,  to fend for themselves. Understand that I am telling you that 1.7 million left the official "workforce"  in just one month. [In December,  50,000 dropped off the roles.  In November,  350,000 left the public workforce.]  Some went on welfare of some sort; the younger adult crowd moved back in with their parents;   others went to work "under the table,"  not reporting their wages in return for not having to report their income.  Still, others went to work for themselves,  again,  making money "under the table."  More than 5 million Americans have opted out of the public workforce since Obama took office, preferring one of the several options listed above.  There are 89 million able bodied adults no longer figured in the "unemployment" numbers (see ZeroHedge for more discussion).  


Remember Obama coming up with the bright idea of forcing everyone who paid out $600 or more for anything,  food,  gas, lawn care,  property clean-up, helping a family move  . . .   whatever,  to fill out and report these transactions on a 1099 form?   It was part of ObamaCare and was to go into effect this month (Jan 2012).  Of course,  the logistics of such an asinine provision made the law impossible to enforce,  a laughable bit of idiocy coming from the fertile mind of Obama.    


As an example of just how nonsensical this proposition would have been,  I have a friend who drives truck cross country.  With this law,  he would have had to keep all receipts for  diesel  and record them separately,  per each gas station at which he purchased fuel,  just in case he bought $600 of fuel over the course of the year from any one of those stations.  


What Obama was trying to accomplish was this:  he knew the workforce was "shrinking," that these folks didn't just disappear;  they were making a living some way.  So he tried to tax the "underground economy"  (more power to those folks,  btw) via the 1099 idea,  a task that proved to be impossible.  

Update and end notes:  the U6 unemployment number is 15.3% (folks unemployed but on benefits and those who are underemployed) or around 19 million Americans,  in addition to the 89 million "doing their own thing,"  working in the growing labor force that is the American Underground.  

Point of post:  to give context to all this "good" news we heard,  today (Friday, Jan 3rd)).  When 1.7 million people leave the workforce in a single month,  a lower unemployment rate (8.3% in this case) is hardly the good news we had hoped it might have been. . . . . . . . . . .   And I haven't discussed the 2.3 million people who lost jobs in January,  but,  because of the process known as "seasonal adjustments,"  we are being told that 243,000 jobs were created.  While "seasonally adjusted" might be an important process,  still,  2.3 million working in December have been laid off in January.  


Conclusion:  its a terrible, terrible mess. 


Related story:  see this short CNBC video news story :  SANTELLI: Here's What's Wrong With Data...