KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
-- Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority.
-- Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control.
-- Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now.
Checking in on 2018’s big picture
In a bygone political era,
the symbolic end of summer -- Labor Day -- denoted the unofficial start
of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say
that the symbolic start of summer -- Memorial Day -- now represents the
campaign season kickoff, though American politics is in a state of
perpetual campaigning. As soon as one campaign concludes with an
election, candidates for the next election start to emerge. That will be
the case after this November’s election, when one would expect the
battle for the Democratic presidential nomination to begin in earnest.
Still, the effective start of
summer offers an opportunity to assess where the races for the House,
Senate, and governorships stand. So we thought we’d offer brief updates
on the state of play.
The race for the House
Map 1: Crystal Ball House ratings
Source: Map is reprinted from 270towin.com
Editor: you are looking at the 435 House (Congressional) Districts.
We have written a lot about the House recently, so those interested in a more in-depth assessment can check out some of our past pieces. But we’ve held at roughly 50-50 odds of a House flip for months. In a nutshell, Democrats have historical advantages: Since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 midterms, with an average loss of 33 seats. In the shorter timeframe of the post-World War II era, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats per midterm. The Democrats need to net 23 seats to win the House.
That said, the Republicans have advantages of their own.
While some of the Republicans’ gerrymandering advantages have been
reduced through court-ordered maps in Florida, Pennsylvania, and
Virginia, the overall House map still leans Republican -- the median
House seat measured by 2016 presidential margin, NE-2, is about four
percentage points to the right of the national margin. Republican
gerrymanders in states like Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and
Wisconsin endure (though a court order forced a modification in the Tar
Heel State), making it challenging for Democrats to net House seats in
these competitive states.
Democrats do benefit, on balance, from an unusually large number of open seats. At least 59 districts -- 39 held by Republicans, 20 held by Democrats -- will not feature an incumbent running for reelection,
the second-highest total of open seats in the postwar era. Democrats
will need to net a substantial number of seats from the open districts,
probably a third or more of the 23 seats they need to flip the House.
The Democratic lead in the House generic ballot
polling average probably will need to be in the high single digits for
Democrats to really feel good about their chances in the fall. The
Democrats’ edge is currently short of that, but it has been in that range for much of the rest of the cycle.
Overall, our ratings show 211
House seats at least leaning to the Republicans, 198 at least leaning
to the Democrats, and 26 Toss-ups (24 held by Republicans, just two held
by Democrats). Splitting the Toss-ups evenly would produce a
224-211 Republican House majority, or a net gain of 17 for the Democrats
from the 194 seats they won in 2016. But if the election
breaks toward the Democrats, as midterms often (but not always) do for
the opposition party, one would expect their gains to be north of that.
| Where things stand in the battles for Congress and the governorships | |
|---|---|
| By Kyle Kondik Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball |
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