The general rule in California is that
one would expect the primary turnout to be more Republican-leaning than
the general election. The reason is the same reason why one
might expect that in other parts of the country: The Republican
electorate is older and whiter, two demographic factors that generally
predict more reliable voter turnout. This year, we’ll probably see
something similar: Politico reported
that 32% of the roughly 650,000 returned absentee ballots have been
from registered Republicans according to the nonpartisan California data
source Political Data, a turnout that is outpacing statewide Republican
registration, which is about 25%. That the primary electorate
likely will be more Republican than the general electorate is an
additional wrinkle that could hurt Democratic chances to advance
candidates to November in one or more of the aforementioned districts.
Now, we are not saying that the Dems will not take back the House, only that California does not appear to be a pathway for that reality.
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