Larry Sabato believes the House midterm elections are a 50-50 deal (despite the retirement of nearly 40 Republican Representatives - I might add ~ editor)

Conclusion  

Despite all these changes, we still think the odds of a House flip are only about 50-50, although those odds are probably generous to Republicans at this point. But we’re also cognizant of the fact that there’s still a long way to go.

After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans. Right now, we have 213 seats Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican, while there are 197 Safe/Likely/Leaning Democratic seats. That leaves 25 Toss-ups, and Democrats would need to win 21 of them to win the House. In all likelihood, though, if Democrats win a House majority, they will win at least a few seats in the Leans, Likely, or even Safe Republican columns, as we noted in a piece we published recently outlining a potential path to a Democratic majority.

And while a Democratic majority is far from certain, the expanding battlefield also illustrates that the Democrats have the potential to not just win the House, but net a significant number of seats beyond the 24 they need if conditions worsen for the Republicans.

____________________

 ALL IN FAVOR OF DEMOCRATS
PA-18 special now a Toss-up; Democratic incumbents in strong position; and what about Paul Ryan?

By Kyle Kondik Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With less than a week to go, the PA-18 special election moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. -- In addition to that ratings change, we are making 25 other changes in the House, all in favor of Democrats. -- No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets. -- After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans. -- Making his debut in our competitive House ratings is the chamber’s most powerful member, Speaker Paul Ryan (R, WI-1). While his district is competitive but clearly Republican-leaning on paper, this shift mostly reflects uncertainty surrounding his future.