Debunking the #1 election related myth being fostered by the Democrat talking heads.

Myth #1: The giant Republican field is unpredictable, almost anybody’s game.
By Center for Politics Director,  Larry J. Sabato

With 10 Republican presidential hats in the ring, and perhaps another 10 to come, we all know the GOP is going to have the largest field in living memory. Increasingly, surveys are showing 10 or more candidates bunched in the single or low double-digits. The most recent Quinnipiac poll headlined a finding that has no modern precedent: five contenders tied at 10 percent each.

But the closeness of the race is a mirage, a false projection of the reality that exists just below the surface. At this very early stage, when every week more candidates declare, the public is mainly not engaged—not even the select contingent of voters that will turn up to cast ballots in the caucuses and primaries.

Republicans are hungry to reoccupy the White House, and the realistic among them understand the party won’t win without pitching a bigger tent. There may be no single GOP frontrunner, but there are just a few politicians who have the resources, positioning and potential to expand the base. They are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, not necessarily in that order.

Everyone can see that Jeb Bush is doing poorly so far. He’s in a much worse position than his father was in 1987 or his brother was in 1999. This Bush intimidates no one. His political skills are rusty, he’s a pedestrian speaker and some of his views (immigration reform, Common Core, etc.) have made him many enemies among party ideologues.

Yet Bush is still undeniably among the frontrunners. The GOP’s donor class is disproportionately for him, as his Super PAC fundraising total will soon reveal. The party’s organizational leaders who care only about winning argue for him. The largest share of top elected Republicans back him openly or covertly. Four Republican senators are running, but private talks with GOP senators lead us to believe more Republican senators are rooting for Bush than for the quartet of their Senate colleagues combined.

Then there’s the experience factor. Jeb may not have been on a ballot himself since 2002, but he has been at the heart of six prior national campaigns, his father’s four (1980, 1984, 1988 and 1992) and his brother’s recent two. No other Republican candidate can boast more than one such trial by fire.

At the same time, Bush isn’t a shoo-in for the nomination. Compared to earlier decades, today’s GOP is considerably less hierarchical and deferential to the leadership. Political money can’t be hoarded by the best-known name, nor by the candidates closest to the formal party leadership. Gobs of campaign cash are just a rich person away; so far there’s seemingly a billionaire backing just about every major candidate. Finally, Jeb Bush is the early favorite in none of the gateway states, that is, the first four to vote (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada).