Before "the" debate, Obama was up by two. After "the" debate - a swing of 4 for Romney. He is now up by 2.

What is not shown,  from Rasmussen,  is the fact that Obama’s “enthusiasm” percentage remains at near historic lows.  This is all “theory,”  but this commentator does not believe Obama can win re-election with an enthusiasm gap of 17, over and against his 2008 highs.  As I count percentages,  critical mass for Obama is 38 percent on Rasmussen’s “strongly approve” (SA) index.  He stands at 28/29 today,  as I write.  He really needs to get his SA index up to 38 before he has reasonable chance of winning.  In 2008,  he won the election by 7 with a SA of 45. 

In short,  per this theory,  Obama loses big – because of turnout if he SA index remains near 30 percent.