Last weeks claims report was touted as the best 4 week average since 2008. Turns out that was not even close to being true.

You will  have to take your time with this post.  The "point of post' is to
report the truth about the "first time unemployment claims" of the past five weeks.

Feb 18  --  353,000 first time claims (an adjusted total)
Feb 25  --  354,000 first time claims (an adjusted total)
March 3 -- 365,000 first time claims (an adjusted total)
March 10 - 354,000 first time claims (an adjusted total)
March 17 - 364,000 first time claims (an adjusted total)  Note:the first report for this week was 348,000, 16,000 short of being accurate.  

and the most recent report issued today,  Thursday, March 29, for the week ending . . . .

March 24 - 359,000 first time claims (yet to be adjusted)

As you can see,  these numbers,  coming directly from the Department of
Labor (see our page "Labor Stats" in this blog's menu bar) confirm a very
slow recovery.  Certainly,  the numbers are down from four years ago,  but
there is no reason to believe that the Obama Stimulus has any influence on
the present recovery,  at all.  And, most definitely,  there is no substance to the claim that the current weekly claims report allows for "the lowest average in 4 years."

*******

End notes:  

The new unemployment first-claims report for the week ending March 24 is 359,000.  We are told that this is 5,000 LESS than the week before and
everyone applauds.  "Improvement is being made!"  Right?  Ahhhh,  not
exactly.

Understand this: the "first report" or "advance" report is always adjusted
upwards in the ensuing 7 day period.  On Thursday of each week,  the Feds release two numbers,  the "first report" for the week ending on the previous Saturday AND the corrected number for the week before that last and most
recent report.

Two weeks ago,  the first claims report was 348,000, giving the Obama government the lowest 4 week average since 2008 !!  Turns out this was a
lie.  That "first time claims report" was actually 364,000 ( and Obama says "Ooooops"); housing starts are down to a 10 year low and things are not
getting that much better.

First report for week ending March 24 is 359,000. This will be adjusted
upward by this time next week:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

_________________________________________________________________

WEEK ENDING

Advance March 24

March 17

Change

March 10

Prior Year1








Initial Claims (SA)

359,000

364,000

-5,000

363,000

401,000


Initial Claims (NSA)

319,349

319,382

-33

340,102

357,457


4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

365,000

368,500

-3,500

368,000

406,000

First report for week ending March 17:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS








WEEK ENDING

Advance March 17

March 10

Change

March 3

Prior Year1










Initial Claims (SA)

348,000

353,000

-5,000

365,000

394,000


Initial Claims (NSA)

315,636

340,077

-24,441

368,433

354,457


4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

355,000

356,250

-1,250

355,750

391,000

About this weeks total (and I am talking about the March 17th report) we have this, taken directly from the web:

February New and Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, March ...

blog.comerica.com/.../february-new-and-existing-home-sales-leading...

Posted on March 23, 2012 by Comerica Economics ... Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell by 5000 for the week ending March 17, to 348000. ... And we are seeing reports of gradually improving builder confidence ... The last time we were consistently below 350000 on initial claims was in the first quarter of 2008. . . .  

Turns out not of this was true.  The actual first time claims number was not 348,000 but a whopping 364,000.  In the three years I have been keeping track of these numbers,  this is the first report that adjust upwards more than 5,000 claims.  The average upward adjustment is 2,500 to 4,000 with "4,000" being rare.