Every Thursday, new unemployment numbers are presented. As you can see from the chart to the left, the last week in October saw 400,000 newly unemployed. You should know that this chart is about "adjusted" numbers for all except the most recent week. Last Thursday's announcement of 397,000 for the last week of October, was adjusted up to 400,000, and that is represented on the chart. Last week, when I reported this number (397,000), I predicted an adjusted number of 400,000, as well. That turned out to be a pretty good guess.
According to RTT News, the April 2 announcement was 385,000, but, according to the chart provided by RTTNews , the number was 400,000. If that represents a 15,000 "adjustment," something was very wrong with the reporting of the last week of March, announced on April 2. Understand that adjusted numbers are always the case, but the adjustments usually run between 2,000 and 4,000.
Today's unadjusted newly unemployed number is 390,000. Even when revised, that number should not rise above 395,000 and could come in at 392,000 or 393,000. We won't know until next Thursday, but I think it safe to say that we are looking at the lowest jobless total this year, and the second time we have been below "400,000" for 2011.
Time will tell if we are looking at the beginning of a trend out of "400,000" with a sense of permanence. In the last 167 weeks, since before the '08 election, this report has been below 400,00 only 10 times, 10 weeks out of 167. Since mid-September, the jobless news has been improving. Accepted estimates predict an 8.5% national unemployed rate by election day, 2012. To be an accurate prediction, these weekly reports must come in at or around 380,000 as a six month, weekly average . . . . . . . . beginning soon.
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