The Electoral College: 1824-2012
Notes: Click on the maps to expand their size. Incumbents’ names are bolded.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, 270towin.com, and CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections, volume I, 6th edition.
Showing posts with label electoral map. Show all posts
Showing posts with label electoral map. Show all posts
As of February of 2012, Obama's electoral count could be as low as 215. Romney's total could be as high as 323. "270" wins the presidency. This is a first for Romney and is Gallup's most recent survey of the 50 states.
<<<< If Obama wins all states in which he rates 47% and higher and Romney wins all the states in which Obama rates 46% and lower, it winds up being a landslide election for Romney.
Besides the information below, all from Gallup, we know that the white vote is down to 26% on a dynamic scale. In 2008, the white vote for Obama total 43%. Keep in mind that the Slickster won the first election by 7.5% of the popular votes. Obama cannot win the election if this number, the white vote alone, remains consistently low. Mondale lost to Reagan in 1988 with a white vote of 31% -- Mondale won just one state and the District of Columbia in that election.
Besides the information below, all from Gallup, we know that the white vote is down to 26% on a dynamic scale. In 2008, the white vote for Obama total 43%. Keep in mind that the Slickster won the first election by 7.5% of the popular votes. Obama cannot win the election if this number, the white vote alone, remains consistently low. Mondale lost to Reagan in 1988 with a white vote of 31% -- Mondale won just one state and the District of Columbia in that election.
Also, military surveys give Obama a 35 to 59 percent
disapproval rating. representing a huge margin of disappointment within the military community. Expect the Dems to try to repress that vote.
Understand that Obama is running behind in all ethnic demographics including Blacks. The Democrat enthusiasm levels are at history lows, as well. On Rasmussen, those who "strongly approve" of Obama are averaging a nominal 27%, down from 45% at the time of the '08 election.
Overall, Obama averaged 44%
job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second
year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with
Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts,
Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia
showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines
were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.
____________________
Updated for End Note:
If that case holds in Novemeber, according to current RCP polling averages, Obama loses:
NC 52% Romney 48% Obama
MI 51% Romney 49% Obama
NH 53% Romney 47% Obama
FL 52% Romney, 48% Obama
PA 51% Romney 49% Obama
CO 51% Romney 49% Obama
WI 53% Romney 47% Obama
Ohio? 50% Romney 50% Obama
and thus the presidency 51.5% Romney 48.5% Obama.
If history is an indicator.
Since a lot of these polls are sampling RVs instead of LVs they are probably a bit more favorable to Obama right now.
____________________
Updated for End Note:
The undecided vote has gone 80% against an incumbent President and
Senator and 75% against the incumbent House member +/- 3% over the last 40
years, regardless of party affiliation.
If that case holds in Novemeber, according to current RCP polling averages, Obama loses:
NC 52% Romney 48% Obama
MI 51% Romney 49% Obama
NH 53% Romney 47% Obama
FL 52% Romney, 48% Obama
PA 51% Romney 49% Obama
CO 51% Romney 49% Obama
WI 53% Romney 47% Obama
Ohio? 50% Romney 50% Obama
and thus the presidency 51.5% Romney 48.5% Obama.
If history is an indicator.
Since a lot of these polls are sampling RVs instead of LVs they are probably a bit more favorable to Obama right now.
"Jason" at National Journal, here.
And the winner is . . . . . . . . . . Obama by 14 !!!
Update: In short, if the toss-up states go to Romney, Ohio becomes the single most important state on Carl's map and the coming election. Ohio has 18 electoral votes and Obama is "up" by 14, again, according to Carl Rove.
Carl Rove sees Obama winning the 2012 election, as things stand today. Remember, the electoral college elects our presidents, not the popular vote. That being the case, Obama stands to win 284 electoral votes when only 270 are needs -- according to Carl. This means that states colored "blue" or "light blue" and totaling, at least, 15 electoral votes must move into the Romney column or this nation is permanently screwed. Go to Carl's site for his rationalization as to his conclusions.
I am preparing a similar presentation, for what its worth, but my outcome is different. I had hoped to have this assignment completed two weeks ago, but time has not afforded me the opportunity to complete my appraisal. It is in the works, however.
Keep in mind that Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. For Obama to be this far "down" after two years of full time campaigning against no one in particular, is very good news for the Patriot Nation.
Update: we have this from Rasmussen reports:
Obama Still Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA) President Obama remains slightly ahead of the Republican front-runners in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying finds that Obama picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. That's little changed from a week ago when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Keep in mind that Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. For Obama to be this far "down" after two years of full time campaigning against no one in particular, is very good news for the Patriot Nation.
Update: we have this from Rasmussen reports:
Obama Still Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA) President Obama remains slightly ahead of the Republican front-runners in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying finds that Obama picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. That's little changed from a week ago when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
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