Showing posts with label Department of Labor stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Department of Labor stats. Show all posts

The US October labor report reported in the context of the truth.

Forget the shutdown: Job creation surged in October despite dimmed expectations from the impasse in Washington.

There were a net 204,000 new jobs created for the month (of October), though the unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent and households reported a huge drop in employment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. A separate measure that includes the underemployed and those who have quit looking also moved higher, from 13.6 percent to 13.8 percent.
The numbers easily topped economist expectations of 120,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs for the month, though it matched estimates for a slight increase in the headline jobless rate.
"I find this bizarre," Moody's economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. "I wouldn't be surprised if this gets revised to some degree...down."  (quote taken from CNBC, here).  

Editor’s notes:  Know that the so-called “unemployment rate” rose to 7.3% for last month’s 7.2% as a function of folks coming out of the shadows and re-entering the workforce.  There are more than 8 million Americans not working,  not looking and not be counted by the Department of Labor in the “7.3%” number.   They are being counted,  however,  in the second set of numbers  (“13.8%”).  This is the actual unemployment rate for the month  -  13.*% but the politicians love thinking up methodologies giving them a path to falsifying the real-time numbers on most anything that negatively effects their political futures. 


Also,  make note of the fact that the “shutdown” ultimately effected nothing, despite what the Compliant Media will continue to report.  With this report,  while unemployment numbers rose,  so, too,  did the number of “jobs created”  --  a good thing  --   and the unmentioned Gross National Product.  

498,619 Americans walked into an employment office, last week, and filed first time claims for unemployed benefits. That number was "adjusted" to 370,000 and reported by the media. No mention can be found for the real number. Yes, they are still playing games with these numbers.

 The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 370,000 new claims number was a 25,000 decrease from a 2,000 upward adjustment of the previous week as the impact of Sandy continues to abate. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the recent trend, rose to 408,000. Given the impact of Hurricane Sandy, the four-week MA will show a skew for the next couple of weeks. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 395,000. The 4-week moving average was 408,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 405,750.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php


According to the Department of Labor,  the unadjusted first time claims count,  the actual number of claims filed last week,  was a whopping 498, 619,  not 370,000.