The president’s approval rating had been on an upward trend. But now it just jumped three points, from 49% to 52%. Polls have also tightened, but it’s measures like the approval level that have been more accurate over time than random polls. As Gallup has noted in the past, “all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost.” That’s why getting over 50 right before the election is considered like reaching the ‘holy grail.’
Related:
TRUMP APPROVAL SURGES TO 52%--TWO POINTS HIGHER THAN OBAMA’S ON THIS DAY IN 2012 Trump (10/22/20): 52% Obama (10/22/12): 50%
Zogby has Trump at 51% among likely voters.
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