No Housing Recovery Until 2020 In 5 Simple Charts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2012 - 11:11Bank of America Bank of America Credit Conditions Gross Domestic Product Home EquityHousing Starts Recession recovery
Every day (for the past 3 years) we hear countless fairy tales why housing has bottomed and will improve any minute now. Just consider the latest kneeslapper from that endlessly amusing Larry Yun of the NAR, uttered just today: "pent-up demand could burst forth from the improving economy." Uh, right. Here's the truth - it won't and here is why, in 5 charts from Bank of America, so simple even an economist will get it.
Europe Drops Dismally Amid Deja Vu
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2012 - 12:21CDS Equity Markets fixed Italy Reality Sovereigns
Keeping it simple, Europe was a sloppy mess today. In an almost perfect copy of last week's sovereign, corporate, and financial credit market movements, today saw all of these assets plunge back near post-Non-Farm-Payroll lows. Equity markets, which had miraculously managed to regain those pre-NFP levels this morning after the Spanish auction knee-jerk, rapidly retraced and aside from some stick-save efforts from US markets and Lagarde, keeps the chaos-ball rolling with yet another multiple-sigma flip-flop. Ugly all around as it seems the reality check we discussed on the Spanish auction overnight was better received than the spin the Euro-Elite tried to put on it as we reinforce our view of the instability as the LTRO Stigma widens further to post LTRO1 wides as 10Y Spain approaches 6% yield and 425bps spread and Italian CDS over 440bps as 10Y yields break back above 5.5%.Guest Post: Wages And Consumption Are Both In Long-Term Downtrends
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2012 - 12:13Federal Reserve Global Economy Guest Post Personal Consumption Personal Incomerecovery Unemployment Volatility
Here are four charts of wages, income and consumption. The charts depict changes from a year ago (also called year-over-year) and the percentage of change from a year ago. These measure rates of change as opposed to absolute changes, and so they are useful in identifying trends... The build-out of Internet infrastructure that culminated in the dot-com boom boosted employment, wages and consumption, and the credit-housing bubble of the mid-2000s also boosted income and consumption. Now that these temporary conditions have faded, what's left is the relentless chewing up of traditional industries by the Web as distributed software boosts productivity while slashing the number of people required to create value. What's remarkable about the first chart is the increase in volatility in recent years: the changes in wages and salaries are increasingly dramatic. This might be reflecting the dynamics of the global economy pulling wages lower while massive financial-stimulus policies of the Central State and bank (the Federal government and the Federal Reserve) act to artificially boost wages with trillions of dollars in borrowed/printed money.
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