Editor's notes: we give you what appears to be a rather accurate exit-poll survey of the November, '08 elections. One of our continuing themes at Midknight Review is predictive review of the coming mid-term election and the 2012 presidential election. This provides us with a reasonable starting point. Obama believes his election victory has more to do with a carefully crafted 2.5 year effort on his part than the collective influences of a [suddenly] crashing economy, strong feelings of angst within the GOP base against McCain, and the novelty of a capable appearing and highly [appearing] gifted black candidate.
Obama believes that this nation (our nation) has been drifting towards a redistributive big government economy (both socially and economically) for long enough that it is, now, ready to make that one big step into a world system that is no longer appreciative of capitalism and extols a brand of Marxist Socialism that is, itself, the basis of his personal beliefs with regard to governance. His "American history" is not the same history of many who voted for him. Therein is a huge problem for Mr. Obama - at least, in our opinion. Our theory is this: Obama misunderstands American voter frustration concerning this country. He confuses that frustration with a supposed rejection of traditional values and the accepted historicity of the United States. As a result, he speaks of "fundamentally transforming the United States" as if others understand what he has in mind and, even worse, agree with his brand of radical departure. We believe that his perceptions are wrong as relates to these matters. If we are correct, he is not only "beatable" in the coming elections, he may be "majorly beatable." We will remind you of our working theory from time to time.As you review the following exit-poll results, consider these conclusions: "first time voters" -- as a group -- never vote a second time in the same numbers as the first, a problem for Obama. That 68% total (for Obama) could fall to 40% or less. They will not cross over, for the most part; they will simply not vote at all.
Obama has lost 15% of the male vote according to recent polling and these voters will cross over, voting for the opposition - a swing of 30% . Midknight Review expects the two categories of voters making 100,000 dollars or more to vote heavily against Obama in the coming mid-terms. He has lost 20% of the senior vote, as well and, again, these will cross over to vote against him and his comrades. His Jewish vote will take a huge hit during coming election. The Black vote has fallen from 95% to 88% at last report.
There is much more in this line of thinking that will be presented. But, at first look, a cursory review, "off the top of our head," we can make a case for deep disappointment if you are an Obama supporter.
Perhaps the worse bit of news for the Obama camp in this report is the fact that the economy was the #1 issue and not much has changed since the '08 election. A second bit of bad news is the fact that only 9% of those voting in '08 carried about the healthcare debate. -- jds
Update (4/28/10 - 9:16 am pst): we should have added this fact for the sake of context: keep in mind that Obama nearly tripled previous record spending levels to win the election by just 6.5 % of the popular vote. He may be able to amass similar funding totals, but Midknight Review believes that the 6.5 voting margin is long gone. -- jds
Demographics for US Presidential Election 2008
06Nov08
The voter demographics for yesterday’s US Presidential election make interesting reading.
The clear splits along Southern States vs Eastern, voter racial group, city-dweller versus rural etc. are brought into sharp contrast. The religious beliefs of the voters also played a key part in the result. As did gun ownership, although some might call this a religion for some.
One of the decisive splits between the candidates was in their appeal to first time voters, with Obama capturing 68% of new voters.
The exit poll was reported in The Guardian newspaper.
There is also an interesting online background briefing to President Obama’s life leading to the White House HERE.
No comments:
Post a Comment