Midknight Review expects a favorable jobs report next week but not because of Obama. Here's why.

You can expect a favorable jobs report this coming week. Last week's "first time applicants" for Unemployment benefits was 442,000. that representative the third week in a row in which that total declined over and against the week before. What does not get reported, except here at Midknight Review, of course, is the context for such a report.

We have been witness to well over a year's worth of reporting on only one aspect of the jobs situation. No one reports the numbers of jobs created and people newly employed. While people are signing up for first time unemployment benefits, there are those who are leaving those benefits behind because they are newly employed. That has been a continuing but under-reported reality all along.

From what we at Midknight Review can observe, the critical number of "first time unemployment applicants" is somewhere around 420,000. It is at this statistical marker that we can expect to see a positive jobs report. And, after nearly a year and a half, we are about to see some positive movement as relates to "jobs." While the "first time applicants" will remain at 400,000 per week or higher, if that number does not approach totals significantly higher than 420,000, new hires will "balance out" the first time applicant numbers. In other words (as an example), the first time benefit report can be 408,000 for the week with the newly employed numbers at 425,000 and -- suddenly - we have a positive jobs report.

The Case For Obama's Smoke and Mirrors Campaign

Obama and his company of Flunkies has been hoping the economy would repair itself. The intention has been, all along, to take credit for this "repair" while continuing to work against private and non-government jobs providers. Most remember Obama's promise related to the February '09 &787 Stimulus (now worth $861 billion) and the infamous 8% benchmark . . . . . "Pass this Stimulus and unemployment will not rise above 8%." Remember that promise? Well, if truth be known, the fact is that Obama was expressing his belief and untold confidence in the free market capitalist system. He thought the "system" would repair itself while he spent money like a drunken Democrat. The strategy was to call this expenditure a "jobs bill," give the bulk of the money to unrelated entities and take credit for whatever jobs improvement occurring after February 17, 2009 (the beginning of the Stimulus). At the time, the unemployment benefit rate was 7.4%. Keep in mind that less than $111 billion was allocated for "infrastructure" (jobs) or less than 15% of the Stimulus package. Here is the official chart of projected Stimulus outlays. The pertinent category, here, is "infrastructure and science." Understand that "science" is attached to "infrastructure" in order to mask the actual and pathetic allocation Obama set aside for jobs creation.

$787 Stimulus Bill - Feb '09

Picture left is the original intent of the Feb '09 $787 Stimulus Bill.

"tax relief" is a one time check written to all citizens whether they paid taxes or not. This is not the $250 check we all received from the appropriations bill.

As of June 30, '09 on $27 billion has been sent out with the states receiving $19 billion, according to FoxNews ("fiscal relief").

Midknight Review believes that 50% of each total is lost to waste, theft and administration costs. On average, then, each state will have $1 billion to spend for "infrastructure and Science"

Conclusions: As a jobs bill, this bill is a misnomer.

Note: no one seems to know what "Protecting the Vulnerable" means. It certainly does not include the hard working middle class tax payer.

The total outlay for all of the above is $787 billion. You should know (from our reporting) that long term "jobs creation" was not a part of the Stimulus Bill -- and, short term "jobs creation" received very little attention in this bill, no more that 15% of total outlays and as little as 8% of the total Stimulus allocation.

The case for a Conservative Reality Campaign

The point of this post? The Stimulus was not about either "stimulus" or "jobs creation." This is not a theoretical claim, by the way. We have a 13 month record proving the point. It is already too late for Obama to lay claim to any jobs improvement. He was right about one thing -- free market capitalism works.

We [conservatives] must not allow Obama to co-opt the successes of the free market system. After a full 13 months of bad news, the notion that the Stimulus is now working is preposterous on its face. Reports such as this editorial present the proper context for America's economic recovery. The stock market, hated by Obama and Company, continues to repair itself - a glowing testimonial to free market enterprise. The continuing economic recovery is a testimony to the same principle. The scope of the current recovery can be influenced by Obama and his Socialist Democrat policies but it can never be the result of those same policies. Governments do not create jobs --- jds
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