WASHINGTON
(AP) — The number of people seeking
unemployment benefits rose last week for the first time in a month. But a
measure of applications over the past month fell to a three-and-a-half-year
low, an indication that hiring could pick up.
The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 15,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 381,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure,
fell for the fourth straight week to 375,000 — the lowest level since June
2008.
Applications generally must fall below 375,000 —
consistently — to signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the
unemployment rate.
Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace
of layoffs. Applications have plummeted in the past month, indicating that job
cuts have fallen sharply. Still, many companies have been slow to boost hiring.
. . . . (note that the 381,000 is 15,000 higher than the unadjusted 366,000 of the prior week -- so where is the revision for that week? The is ALWAYS such a revision -- blog editor)
There is so
much misinformation embedded in this article as to be startling, but the single most important misstatement is
the one that reads, “Unemployment
benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. Applications have
plummeted in the past month, indicating that job cuts have fallen sharply.
Still, many companies have been slow to boost hiring.”
The fact of
the matter is quite different. This weekly
report is a measure of the number of people making first time application for
unemployment benefits and nothing more. It does not mean that employers are
hiring. It does not mean that more
Americans are working. It does not mean
that “job cuts have fallen sharply” in the sense that is good news. It only applies to people qualified for
unemployment benefits for the prior week.
If folks have quit looking for work,
they are not counted in this number.
Since
2004, the national workforce has fallen
from 138 million to 126 million in 2010,
according to Department of Labor stats. What happened to them? They quit working !!!! or, have
moved into the “underground” work force.
My gardener is one of these underground rebels. Good for him.
And, in the three years since Obama took
office, the nation has lost 2 million
job positions. In other words, there are 2 million few jobs to be
found, than existed four years ago.
The only
number that means anything in a definitive sense, as to the issue of employment, is the one that compares the size of the
national workforce against the number of folks working full time and, again, part-time (20 hours per week or
more). Understand that the government
will count as “part-time” those who have
worked as little as one hour for the month.
Nonsense.
Anyway, this blog has, as a major theme, this very issue. In addition to our weekly reporting, we have a page dedicated to Department of
Labor statistics.
Understand
that, during the election season, Labor stats are always manipulated, whether by the Dems or the GOP --
whoever happens to be in power, at the time. This campaign cycle, it is about the Democrats. Expect to see lies and damn lies flowing like
water from the pundits playing “the numbers game.” It started two weeks ago.
Bloomberg is
reporting that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez hinted that the U.S. may be behind a “very strange” bout of cancer
affecting several leaders aligned with him in South America.
