Rubio’s impressive over-performance in Iowa
does give him some momentum heading into New Hampshire. He needs to hope
positive press coverage helps him break out of the high single digits
and, potentially, into second (or even first?) place over a crowded
field of competitors.
New Hampshire is where Bush, Christie, and
Kasich will make their stand. After combining for less than 7% of the
vote in Iowa, they should do considerably better in the Granite State --
or it’s curtains.
Realistically, each needs to finish ahead of
the other two -- and also in front of two of the three of Cruz, Rubio,
and Trump. In other words, each should be gunning for at least second --
a showing that only one of them, plausibly, can achieve. And if Rubio
finishes ahead of all of them, he can make a credible argument that it’s
time for the Granite-loving governors to go -- an argument that other
establishment-oriented Republicans also might begin to make forcefully,
both publicly and privately.
The trouble for Rubio is that of the three
candidates who effectively skipped Iowa to focus on New Hampshire --
Bush, Christie, and Kasich -- the most formidable opponent is the one he
has the most interest in taking down: Bush. Bush’s Right to Rise Super
PAC has been hammering Rubio to the point where it seems possible that
Rubio’s numbers have been artificially low for months, and Bush and his
Super PAC still have sufficient funding to continue. Many party leaders
and pundits say Rubio is the likeliest GOP nominee at this point, but
all that could go up in smoke if he sags badly in New Hampshire and
allows one or more of the Bush-Christie-Kasich troika to move up and on.
Rubio had better be ready for the Saturday
Republican debate -- he arguably will be the top target of everyone else
on stage. In fact, so many candidates have so much at stake in New
Hampshire that they’d all better buckle on their armor. The incoming
fire is guaranteed to be withering.
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