Midknight Review -- new and revised: Midterm Update: Answering the question, "Why is this election cycle the best cycle for the GOP since 2008?"

Midterm Update: Answering the question, "Why is this election cycle the best cycle for the GOP since 2008?"

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Factors making this year's midterm elections, a good year for the GOP:

Obama’s troubles: President Obama’s approval ratings are in the low 40s, and midterm elections are very often a vote against the party that occupies the White House, particularly if the occupant is unpopular.

A great map: This Senate map is the most-Republican leaning of the three Senate classes up for election once every six years. These seats were last on the ballot in 2008, a big Democratic year. American politics is about surges and declines: In 2008 came the surge for Democrats, and in 2014 comes the decline.

Partisan polarization: The increasing partisanship of American politics and the American people makes it harder and harder for Democrats to win in Republican states and districts, and vice-versa. Seven Democrats hold Senate seats contested this year in states that supported Mitt Romney in 2012. Six of those states are very Republican at the presidential level -- Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia -- and Republicans are probably at least slightly favored to win all six of their Senate races. The seventh, North Carolina, is gettable if the GOP has a big night. Republicans only have to defend one seat in an Obama state, Maine, and GOP Sen. Susan Collins has the race all but wrapped up.

Democratic difficulties: The Democrats had a string of Senate retirements in places like Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, all of which improved Republican odds to win those states. The replacement Democratic candidates in these states have generally been poor, none more so than appointed Sen. John Walsh, whose plagiarism forced him from the ballot in Montana and prompted the Democrats to wave the white flag in a Senate seat they hadnever lost since the advent of popular Senate elections a century ago.

Decent GOP candidates: Establishment-backed Republicans won basically every meaningful Senate primary this year. While some Republican candidates have misfired, like Terri Lynn Land in Michigan, the GOP has not had a clearly disastrous candidacy turn victory into defeat in any single state, unlike 2010 and 2012 -- although David Perdue in Georgia and Thom Tillis in North Carolina are testing this proposition. To the contrary, the Senate candidate this cycle most associated with gaffes is a Democrat, Bruce Braley of Iowa.

Those big factors all point to a good night for Republicans on Tuesday.

Source: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

BET ON A GOP SENATE MAJORITY

By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley Sabato's Crystal Ball

Join the Crystal Ball team Monday night at the University of Virginia for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information and to register to attend.

2 comments:

AnonymousOctober 31, 2014 at 11:31 AM

90 Pounds of Cocaine Found on Cargo Ship Owned by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Father-in-Law

The Foremost Maritime Corporation, a firm founded and owned by McConnell’s in-laws, the Chao family.

Foremost Marine Co, has played a pivotal role in McConnell’s life, bestowing the senator with most of his personal wealth and generating thousands in donations to his campaign committees.

McConnell has positioned himself over the years as a tough on drugs politician. In 1996, McConnell was the sole sponsor of the Enhanced Marijuana Penalties Act, a bill to increase the mandatory minimum sentencing for those caught with certain amounts of marijuana. A press release noted that his bill would make “penalties for selling marijuana comparable to those for selling heroin and cocaine.”

McConnell is involved with a cocaine cartel, in his family.

http://newswatchreport.com/item/20929_90-pounds-of-cocaine-found-on-cargo-ship-owned-by-senate-majority-leader-mitch-mcconnell-s-father-in-law
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Let's return the favor, shall we?

CLINTON: You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about. That’s why I believe if we are fortunate enough to win back the House and/or the senate, that’s when civility can start again. But until then, the only thing that the Republicans seem to recognize and respect is strength. And you heard how the Republican members led by Mitch McConnell, the president really demeaned the confirmation process.

The Stated Nonsense from the Left now includes these Progressive goals:

July 2, 2008, Obama had this to say: "We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set. We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded."

MICHELLE OBAMA: "Barack knows that we are going to have to make sacrifices; we are going to have to change our conversation; we're going to have to change our traditions, our history; we're going to have to move into a different place as a nation."

“ . . . . . . they have become a generation of activists possessed with that most American of ideas – that people who love their country can change it.” -- Obama the Radical

On September 30, Van Jones told MSNBC "I think everybody should hold onto your seats. October is going to be the turning point when it comes to the progressive fight back."