PEW Polling says "Obama Wins in a landslide" We say, "Obama loses by 15 million votes.

From Pew Research, we have this statement: Forty-seven percent of registered voters said they would choose to reelect Obama, compared to 35 percent who would prefer an unnamed Republican candidate, while 16 percent were undecided, a Pew Research Center poll found.

Wow. a 12 point victory for Obama.

I think this conclusion is more than idiotic. Look, apparently "approval ratings" mean nothing to PEW and the folks who published this nonsense (The Hill) .

Obama's fall from grace, 65% approval on Day One and 45% today , represents a change of mind for those who voted for the man of 20% or approximately 25.6 million people. He won the election by 9 million which equaled [approx] 7% of the vote or 1.28 million per percentage point.

If we add the 25.6 million to the 60 million votes McCain/Palin received, well, the difference between Right and Left is monumental. I do not believe that he will lose by a vote count of 85 million 50 million, but I do believe the count, as things stand today, will be around 73 million to 59 million -- against Obama. And, this is a conservative estimate.

Here is the rationale:

The final count for the 2008 election , gave Obama 69 million votes to 60 million for McCain. The story that never gets reported is the "fact," that upwards of 5 million right-wingers did not vote in the election because of McCain's nomination. They will vote come 2012.

Election results : 69 million, Obama; 65 million for the Right guys.

He has lost 3 million of the white male vote and these will be swing voters:

Election results: 66 million, Obama; 68 million for the Right guys.

First time voters constituted approximately 12% of the total vote (130 million) or 1.5 million. Obama got 80% of this vote or 1.2 million. I believe he will lose 400,000 of this vote. In the end, he has not made college cheaper or more accessible. This will not be a swing vote.

Election results: 65.6 million, Obama; 68 million for the Right guys.

According to Gallup, Obama has lost approx 15% of the Hispanic vote. These may very well be swing voters. Hispanics in 2008 accounted for 10 million votes. A swing of 1.5 million would give us this total:

Election results: 64.1 Obama; 69.5 million for the Right guys.

In one report, a little more than 15% of the total electorate were Bush voters, in 2004. If we take a very conservative stand on these numbers (15% of 130 million total votes is 19.5 million), and "swing" only 4 million of these voters, we have this:

Election results: 60.4 million for Obama; 73.5 million for the right guys. We have counted as "swing" only 4 of the 19 million Bush voters to avoid double counting in the demographics already presented.

I believe he will lose a million Black votes, folks who have lost interest in the man for various reasons. These are definitely not swing voters.

Election results: 59.4 million for Obama; 73.5 million for the Right guys.

Understand that Obama has lost 22% of the educated vote (Gallup, here). I could not find the actual numeric equivalent to this percentage and did not figure this into the above computation for that reason.

In the 18 to 29 year old demographic, in 2006, 30% of their population voted in the election. In 2008, that number rose to 75% , most of which went to Obama. In the 2010 midterms, this demographic fell to 19% of this demographic's population, which is lower than their historical averages. Again, this was not figured into my presentation. Not good for Obama.

What we are saying is this: if PEW and the folks who will run to this survey do not believe that "approval polling" counts for anything, as apparently they do not, then Obama wins in a landslide. But if specific demographic polling counts, Obama and Company are in for one of the most one sided presidential election defeats since Jimmy Carter.

Understand that Obama spent more than twice as much as John McCain and Sarah Palin, twice as much, in 2008. He won the election by just 7% and millions stayed away from the voting booth because of McCain. If Obama had won in a landslide, I would give him a chance. But he did not. And this time, the GOP will spend an equal amount of money as it pitches its best against a man we now know much more about than we want to know.

He won because of the novelty of it all, because of his great ability to deliver a speech and because of a host of promises made but not kept. None of this works for him, now.

Search for: Obama in 2012; 2012 election; loses by landslide; 75 million to 59 million
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