Editor's notes: The RCP poll is the first national poll to put Obama's disapproval numbers at 49%. Understand that while other presidents had low approval numbers at the midterm mark of their first term, Obama's circumstance is different. He is most often compared to Clinton and Reagan.
With Clinton, the midterm disaster that put both houses of Congress in the hands of a Newt Gingrich led GOP, was countered by Clinton with a move back to the right. The move not only saved Clinton for a second term but benefited the nation in terms of accomplished bi-partisan policy. There is no indication that such will be the case for Obama. Midknight Review believes that if Obama loses his power base as it appears that he will, his partisan confrontational manner will further drive the two parties from each other. The next two years will find Obama framing the political debate in his favor. After the Lame Duck Congress is gone, the 2012 presidential election cycle will begin.
With Reagan, the economy continued to suffer coming out of the idiocy of the Carter years, his tax cuts had not yet kicked in and, like Clinton, he lost the Congress to the Dems at the first midterm. Like Clinton and because of the success of his economic policies, Reagan won reelectons in one of the most one sided elections in history.
Neither Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan came to the White House as novice politicians. Both men were long term governors and understood the nature and importance of bi-partisan behavior and the fickleness of public opinion. Obama understands neither and has no administrative experience whatsoever.
And why would Obama be anything but partisan. He is a Marxist/Liberationist revolutionary who came into office with a majority in both houses, a majority he interpreted as allowing him to ignore the "opposition. And he governed in precisely that manner.
His agenda was far more important to him than getting along with the other side or, as it turned out, the will and desires of the people. Such is the nature of a committed revolutionary. As an example, he promised his Mexican constituency "comprehensive immigration legislation" by the end of his first year. While he could have accomplished this, he chose, rather, to reward his supporters (unions, bankers buds and individual politicians) with TARP money (trillions of dollars), the February Stimulus, the Spring '09 Omnibus allocation ($460 billion), donations to the Muslim organization in Gaza ($1.3 billion in two gifts) and the concerted effort at taking over healthcare. As a result, he lost 20% of his Hispanic voting base with no indication that he will be able to bring these folks back into the fold.
With Independents, his campaign numbers included a 57% approval within their ranks. Some publications have this total as high as 65%. He has lost a full 20 percentage points with these folks and cannot win reelection unless he repairs this breech. Independents constitute nearly 40% of the electorate (which equals more than 20 million votes using '08 election numbers as a baseline) and vote their pocket book. More than any other polling demographic, this is the single most important number and in all polls, the Independent approval numbers for Obama hover around 35%. This is in contrast to the national approval number of 44%.
Clinton and Reagan lost in the popular opinon market, but hung onto the Independents. Obama has not. The coming midterm elections will tell us all just how serious this exodus is to Democrat electability.
Understand that Independents are an extremely fickle bunch. If the economy where to turn around during the next two years and Obama recovered his losses within this segment of the population, he would have a chance to win reelection.
What we all forget is this: Mr Obama promised the Moon during his first campaign but violated all of his major promises including taxation of the middle class, GITMO, the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan, recovery of the economy (jobs), the Public Option, Cap and Trade (the Marxist version of "environmental" law) comprehensive immigration legislation, deficit reduction, transparency reform, line by line spending review and cuts and the end of partisan rule. He will not be able to make such promises again. No one will believe.
Further, let's not forget that he won election by only 6.5 % (9 million plus votes) after spending twice the money of the McCain camp and having the major Marxist media at his beck and call. As things stand today, he cannot win reelection even if running against Joe Biden.
(C) J David Smithson
Midknight Review
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