First time claims report: 382,000 for last week and trending towards 400,000.

Understand that these are folks who either just got fired or were laid off for a period of time.  382,000 is the weekly number,  which means the monthly rate of job loss is 1.5 million.  By contrast, the break-even number is closer to 1.35 million on a four week monthly average.  The net/net job loss represented in these two numbers  (1.5 million ,1.35 million>) is around 150,000.  With all this,  I mean to say, the actual number of folks who lost their job last week and will remain unemployed, is around 150,000.  The economy added another 150,000 to the over-all unemployment number (currently set at 8.1%).

Remember that 365,000 Americans gave up looking for work in August,  and are no longer being counted on any list.  If the government had chosen to count these people,  as it should have,  the unemployment rate of 8.3 would not have dropped two points,  but would have increased to 8.5.  Gallup, two weeks earlier,  had predicted a BLS number of 8.7%. 

Add to all this the fact that inflation is starting to raise its ugly head with a sharp increase in the "cost of goods" and rising gas prices  ($4.00 per gallon nation wide) and we have a very disturbing economic trend.  Will it take us back into recession,  even before the coming elections?    Have you noticed that the Left has stopped trying to say that we are better off than four years ago??  They have and with good reason.   

No comments:

Post a Comment