Rasmussen, Wednesday,
May 02, 2012
With the
Republican primary race all but settled, President Obama still holds a slight
lead over likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney in combined polling of the key swing
states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New
Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying of Likely Voters in the so-called Core
Four states finds that Obama picks up 46% support to Romney’s 43%. Seven
percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
(To see survey question wording, click here.) . . . . . . . . .
Editor notes:
Understand that
a polling advantage is one thing; turnout
is quite another.
Two things
are working against Obama, besides his
own mouth: the Independent vote and
turnout. You should know that
Independents do not make up their minds until just days, sometimes hours, before the polls open on election day, and they usually vote
for the challenger, especially if the
economy is having serious problems.
Secondly, turnout is going to be
a real problem for B Hussein. The enthusiasm
level for Obama is around 25% and that is important because "enthusiasm percentages" translate into turnout. Compare the current 25% rating to the 48% enthusiasm percentage in 2008 and a 7% victory at the
polls, and you can see the problem. The enthusiasm level for the GOP is around
35% right now, but I expect that to
increase substantially.
Romney’s VP
choice will be the most critical VP choice in my lifetime. While many are busy talking down TEA Party
influence, insiders on both sides of the
fence know just how important the TEA Party vote is going to be in this election. If Romney picks an “Establishment” running
mate, we all loose. But,
there is no one being considered who falls within that
classification. Ayotte, Portman, the New
Mexico Governor, Rubio and Paul Ryan are all TEA Party favorites.
I do not think Romney’s candidacy will kick into
high gear before he makes that selection. Until then, we will just have to let Obama beat himself -- and, over the past 4 weeks, he has done a bang-up
job in that department
No comments:
Post a Comment