Crystal Ball rankings for 2016 candidates in both parties.

Table 1: Crystal Ball rankings of 2016 Republican presidential candidates

First Tier: The Divisive Polling Leader
Candidate		Key Primary Advantages	Key Primary Disadvantages
	Donald Trump Businessman and TV personality	•Commands the stage, has freedom to say anything -- and does •Draws crowds & media; high name ID; riveting figure •Billionaire, can self-fund if he wants	•Has committed supporters, but may have low support ceiling in GOP primary •Strongly opposed by a near-unanimous GOP leadership
Second Tier: The Iowa Favorite?
	Ted Cruz Senator, TX	•Dynamic debater & canny, often underestimated politician •Anti-establishment nature plays well with base •Understands that race is marathon, not sprint	•Disliked on both sides of Senate aisle and has few friends in party •Can he unite the party, or is he just a factional candidate?
Third Tier: The Long-Distance Runner
	Marco Rubio Senator, FL	•Dynamic speaker and politician •Generational contrast with Jeb...& Hillary •Starting to win support from party leaders, who may see him as their only plausible, winning nominee	•Went left on immigration, hurt him with base •Is he raising enough money and building a strong enough organization? •Do Republicans see him as a plausible president?
Fourth Tier: Stuck in Granite
	Chris Christie Governor, NJ	•Commanding speaker and stage presence •Improving his favorability amongst Republicans	•Large parts of party still don’t like him •Doesn’t fit ideological mood of party
	Jeb Bush Ex-Governor, FL	•National BushWorld money and organization •Personifies establishment, which typically produces GOP nominees	•Bush fatigue is real and deep •Early ad blitz has not moved needle, numbers have only worsened
	John Kasich Governor, OH	•Long moderate-conservative record plus two terms as swing-state Ohio governor	•Unscripted, combative style leads to unforced errors •Jon Huntsman 2.0?
Fifth Tier: Back of the Pack
	Ben Carson Neurosurgeon and activist	•High favorability in party, well-liked by white evangelicals •Political outsider, no baggage from office	•Running messy, error-prone campaign •National security & foreign policy campaign focus weakens him
	Carly Fiorina Former business executive	•The only woman in the field, severe critic of Clinton •Strong on debate stage & on camera	•Lost only race (2010 Senate) badly •Over-reliant on debate performances, poor fundraising
	Mike Huckabee Ex-Governor, AR	•Has the kind of profile that appeals to blue-collar social conservatives	•Increasingly overshadowed by other socially conservative candidates
	Rand Paul Senator, KY	•National ID and fundraising network; benefits from father’s previous efforts	•Dovish views on national security are out of GOP mainstream
	Rick Santorum Ex-Senator, PA	•Credibility with social conservatives	•Yesterday’s news
	Jim Gilmore Ex-Governor, VA	•Military record, intelligence officer during Cold War	•Totally left out of debates, anonymous in party

The Democrats

Table 2: Crystal Ball rankings of 2016 Democratic presidential candidates

First Tier: The Undisputed Frontrunner
Candidate		Key Primary Advantages	Key Primary Disadvantages
	Hillary Clinton Ex-Secretary of State	•Stronger than she was eight years ago •Overwhelming support from party leaders •Dual support from women, minorities hard to overcome, particularly after Iowa and New Hampshire	•Private emails, Clinton Foundation scandals still playing out •Possible losses in early states could snowball •Keeping Bill in check -- and on the porch
Second Tier: The Leading Challenger
	Bernie Sanders Senator (Ind.), VT	•Could win one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire •Strongly competing with Clinton in the $$ game •Drawing big crowds and generating enthusiasm on party’s left flank	•Outsider in what is very much an insider process •Continues to generate little excitement among nonwhite voters •Big crowds don’t predict wins
Third Tier: The Oxygen Seeker
	Martin O’Malley Ex-Governor, MD	•Liberal record and policy achievements	•Didn’t even make ballot in some places •Candidacy largely invisible so far, even with debate appearances