The first tests as to the comparative and elective strength of the teaparty movement is just around the corner.

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The AP poll also gives Republicans a 14-point lead (51 to 37) among those paying the closest attention to this election — Republicans had led by just 3 points within this group (45 to 42) as recently as January. 

Primaries 2014

What follows below is a quick, chronological list of key GOP primaries that loom in the month of May. 

May 6

North Carolina-Senate: Here’s a race where, at least for now, even the unknown Republicans in the field poll ahead of Sen. Kay Hagan, D. But there’s no guarantee any of them will win once thrust into the limelight. 

Dr. Greg Brannon, R, is the top insurgent candidate in the race. A libertarian Republican, he enjoys the support of Sens. Rand Paul and Mike Lee, and the Senate Conservatives Fund. But he also just lost a civil fraud lawsuit (he’s appealing). Whatever the merits of the case, it’s very hard to see how it won’t destroy him, either now or later.

The establishment GOP favorite, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, leads in the polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff, probably against Brannon. He has American Crossroads going to bat for him with an ad buy greater than $1 million, and the Chamber of Commerce has announced its late support. He has also received the endorsement of National Right to Life — an unusually important endorsement in this particular situation. Brannon has hit Tillis hard for allowing one of the co-founders of the Raleigh Planned Parenthood facility (which does not do abortions) to serve on his “Women for Tillis” committee. 

North Carolina-3: Neoconservative candidates have run before against the anti-war Rep. Walter Jones, R. No one has really come very close to success. Former Bush aide Taylor Griffin hopes to succeed in the GOP primary where others have failed. Outside groups have put a lot of cash behind him, although his own fundraising was not that special as of the last report.

Recall that Jones — once so enthusiastic about the Iraq War that he tried to rename French Fries (“freedom fries”) — later regretted this deeply and became one of the most recalcitrant, anti-leadership members of the GOP caucus. 

May 13

Nebraska-Senate: This key battle in the GOP civil war has taken some very strange turns in the last month. It is one of the few in which the “establishment” — as defined by some, anyway — looks like it really may lose.

The most recent development is that Midland University president Ben Sasse once again managed to outraise former state Treasurer Shane Osborn in the first quarter, despite what had been described as a fairly aggressive attempt by Republicans in D.C. to discourage donors and freeze Sasse out.

Prior to that, the conservative group Freedomworks surprised everyone by un-endorsing Osborn and backing Sasse, despite having harshly criticized Sasse previously as a closet Obamacare-lover. (This was preposterous — in fact, all of the GOP candidates in the race more or less agree on all issues.) Along with Sarah Palin’s endorsement, this basically makes Sasse the consensus candidate of the Tea Party — although he is an “establishment” candidate as well, enjoying support from U.S. Reps. Paul Ryan, Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., and Karl Rove.

Osborn, who has the tacit backing and fundraising support of GOP leaders in D.C., took a sudden turn for the worse right before the flurry of endorsements began, after he or his staff presented a reporter with something they may have misrepresented as an official Pentagon document regarding his military service. (It’s a complicated story — click through to read the details.) 

May 20

Georgia-Senate: The crowded Republican primary here is certain to go to a runoff — but between whom? There are just too many possibilities at this point to say with much certainty.

The major conservative outside groups have been hesitant to get involved so far, and at least in the first round there are probably too many conservative candidates to do so. Businessman David Perdue, probably the closest thing to an establishment candidate, started to look like a certain runoff-qualifier lately, but then the tape of his condescending comments on rival Karen Handel‘s educational credentials were made public — not necessarily fatal, but very damaging.

Handel, a former Georgia Secretary of State, recently received Sarah Palin’s endorsement. Importantly, she does not offend the party establishment in D.C. and would be readily accepted there — meaning that she could easily become a consensus nominee if she makes the runoff against Perdue.

It would be quite different if she made a runoff against Rep. Jack Kingston, a relatively conservative appropriator, or against anti-establishment Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey. 

Idaho-2: This is one of the few House races the Club for Growth is involved in this year — a primary challenge to Rep. Mike Simpson, R. Bryan Smith, the Club’s candidate, is a lawyer from Idaho Falls. He faces an uphill climb, given the NRA’s aggressive advertising on Simpson’s behalf, which has gone well beyond the pro forma endorsement.

Kentucky-Senate: Mitch McConnell should have little problem putting away his primary challenger, Matt Bevin. His problem is in the general election — an it’s a must for him to unite the party ahead of it.  

Oregon-Senate: This is one of the few actually contested primaries where abortion is an issue this year. Monica Wehby, the establishment choice and a pro-abortion-choice candidate, raised nearly $600,000 and probably leads the field in cash, although others have yet to report. State Rep. Jason Conger, R, has the backing of Oregon Right-to-Life, which has been running ads on his behalf. But Conger is getting squeezed over his vote for the state’s Obamacare exchange, which became a total failure despite a high-profile advertising campaign. IT consultant Mark Callahan is also in the running. 

May 27

Texas-4: After former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe, R, forced a runoff in his race against Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Tex., the Club for Growth backed him. Conservatives have few beefs against Hall, a former Democrat who turns 91 next month. The incumbent’s cash on hand is quite pathetic going into the final stretch — Ratcliffe led him four-to-one in the run-up to the first round of the primary.