A review of Virgina's role in the coming 2012 election . . . . . Both sides have reason to be hopefull.

Original Commentary by J Smithson

A critical aspect in Obama’s 2012 campaign strategy the duplication of his victories in Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina. These are, typically, Republican states as relates to national elections. You will be hearing much about these three states in the coming months. They constitute the so-called “Battleground” states, along with Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. If Obama and the Democrats lose these six states, they will lose the election, over-all. Understand that there are other states that once stood in the Obama camp but are now in question. Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin are three of these. But, the six Battleground States cannot be lost, as an electoral block, if Obama hopes to win re-election.

Virginia voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the ten national elections preceding 2008. But, the states 13 electoral votes went to Obama in 2008. Understand that Virginia’s population has a 20% Black component. This demographic made the difference in the past national election. 2010 was a different matter, however.

Prior to the 2010 mid-term elections, of the 11 congressional elections (representatives to the House), 6 were Democrats and 5 were Republican. After that famous election, the Republicans owned 8 of the 11 districts in the state. Eric Cantor, the number two man in the House of Representatives, is from this state. His won re-election by nearly 60% of the vote.

In 2011, there was a special election to determine the new governor of that state. That election, held just a few days ago, was won by the Democrat candidate. The outgoing governor, Joe Manchin, a Blue Dog conservative Democrat, had moved over to the Senate.

Currently, Quinnipiac has Obama’s approval numbers running in the low to mid 40’s. If the Black population is not energized to vote and the economy remains a negative consideration - although improving – Obama will lose this state in the national election. His re-election campaign is fully aware of this circumstance. Virginia is a state the Democrats can win, for Obama, but the going is an uphill concern.

In review, there are positive considerations for both the Democrats and Republicans regading the Virginia vote. The state’s role in the coming election is critical and “up in the air,” as they say. The fact that Obama has a 45% approval rating, on a consistent basis, is a troubling reality, however, for the Obama people.