Post # 2 from Rasmussen: Election Forecasting .

Rasmussen Reports


Election 2012: Obama 45%, Generic Republican 44%

After trailing in nearly four months of weekly surveys, President Obama is now essentially tied with a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup for the week ending Sunday, November 13. The president earns his highest level of support in nearly six months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Obama earning 45% support, while the generic Republican picks up 44% of the vote.

The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted November 7-13, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Seemethodology.surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida 2012: Romney 46%, Obama 42%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney posts a slight lead over President Obama in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the presidential race in the key swing state of Florida.

Romney earns support from 46% of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State to Obama's 42%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is nearly tied with the president, with Obama posting a narrow 45% to 43% lead in this matchup. Eight percent (8%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on November 17, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Seemethodology.

North Carolina: Generic Republican 44%, Obama 42%

Barack Obama managed to win North Carolina’s Electoral College votes by less than a percentage point in 2008. That was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since 1976, and the Tar Heel State looks to be competitive once again.

New Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that a Generic Republican currently attracts support from 44% of Likely Voters in North Carolina, while President Obama picks up 42% of the vot

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