In the following post, we offer a tribute of sorts, to Obama's well worded Tucson speech. But we cannot give that tribute without this caveat.
In the writing and presentation of Obama's memorial speech, he may have confirmed the notion that he has taken a hard turn toward the political center. He is redefining himself -- taking us back to the Obama we saw on the 2008 campaign trail.
And who was that Obama? A committed social collectivist who took his cues from the Black Liberation Theology he was exposed to for 22 years. Understand that when he first walked into Jeremiah Wright's congregation, he was an impressionable young black man, 25 years of age. And for nearly 22 years, he listened to the rantings of this angry, white-hating pastor who perverted the message of Christianity into a redistributive social command.
There is no reason to believe that he does not remain true to his convictions; we know much about those convictions and how they play out against the backdrop of "fundamental change." But he also knows how critical it is to get himself re-elected. Bill Clinton had no reason to seek re-election except those attributed to his infamous narcissism. It is very different with Obama. Without the veto power of the presidency, all that his socialist/Marxist buds accomplished in 2009/2010 will be struck down.
He and the Democrat spin machine share in their awareness of the importance of the coming election. And they will approach it with a certain harshness not seen in recent memory. "Down and dirty" will be the more benevolent characterization of what we are about to see from the Democrat collation (which includes all of the "major" media).
His social programming has come to an end because of the election results of the midterm. He knows this. There is no reason for him to continue his blatant partisan ways. He no longer benefits from a Democrat majority. So, we will see him become more conciliatory, perhaps. Let the partisan attack machine do the dirty work while he presents himself as a "true"statesman, the man in the middle, mediating the political turmoil of the approaching political season. His numbers will increase.
We add this caution: if he continues down the path of circumventing congress via his regulatory powers, his electability will be effected in a negative way. If the midterms were about anything, they were about the People telling congress, "Start listening to us." An end run style of governance will not be well received and will not go unnoticed.
Increasing approval numbers do not [necessarily] make for a successful electoral bid. Let's not forget what we have said time and time again: Obama spent three-fourths of a billion dollars to win an election by just 7 % of the vote . . . . . . . . . . against a man who was one of the more unpopular GOP candidates of modern time. Whether you like Sarah Palin or not, it is a fact that if she had not been in the mix, McCain's defeat would have been historical in measure. Instead, it was not.
As the numbers stand today, Obama cannot win re-election**. Can he win back all the folks that he has lost over the past two years? Of course, anything is possible but we rather think not.
**End notes: using the past midterms and survey results from Gallup and Rasmussen, we have this elective circumstance for Obama -- there has been a swing of 20% of white woman towards the conservative point of view; 7% of white males have switched sides, as well, and both demographics will vote their change of heart. 6% of Blacks have walked away - most will not swing to the GOP, however. He has lost 15% of his Hispanic vote 40% of the Independents voting for him in 2008. Like we said, he cannot will election with these numbers.
A disaster at some level of his foreign policy can add to his election fears as would radically increased gas prices. If the housing crisis does viral, that will comeback to haunt him, as well. And then there may effects attributed to persistent news of a costly healthcare program. As good as his Tucson speech was, it is too far removed from the 2012 elections to do him any lasting good.
While we expect his approval numbers to rise, we do not see him gathering the number of friends and supporters he had before. Time will tell.
Update: understand that the goodness of the Obama's speech was offset a bit by the creation and sale of event "Together we Thrive" campaign style T-shirts. . . . . . . at a memorial for the dead and the survivors, raising questions as to Obama's underlying purpose for this memorial speech. Remember, this was all his idea -- the trip to Tucson and the T-shirts.
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