The predictions in Table 2 show that Democrats will need a lead of at
least five points on the generic ballot in early September of 2018 in
order to gain the 24 seats that they need to take control of the House.
Based on the results of recent national polls, that number appears well
within reach. On average, based on calculations from FiveThirtyEight, Democrats hold an adjusted lead of close to seven points on the generic ballot, mirroring that of the RealClearPolitics average.
A lead of that magnitude would result in a predicted Democratic gain of
close to 30 House seats, more than enough to regain control of the
chamber. Given the model’s standard error of 11.6 seats, that forecast
would give Democrats about a two-thirds chance of regaining control of
the House.
Go to http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball for the full article.
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