April 5, 2015 by Larry Summers, here, once a key figure in the Obama Administration.
This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States
lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. True,
there have been any number of periods of frustration for the US before,
and times when American behavior was hardly unilateralist, such as
the 1971 Nixon shock, ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold.
But I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the
combination of China’s effort to establish a major new institution and
the failure of the US to persuade dozens of its traditional
allies, starting with Britain, to stay out of it.
This failure of strategy and tactics was a long time coming, and it
should lead to a comprehensive review of the US approach to global
economics. With China’s economic size rivalling America’s and emerging
markets accounting for at least half of world output, the global
economic architecture needs substantial adjustment. Political pressures
from all sides in the US have rendered it increasingly dysfunctional.
Largely because of resistance from the right, the US stands alone in
the world in failing to approve the International Monetary
Fund governance reforms that Washington itself pushed for in 2009. By
supplementing IMF resources, this change would have bolstered confidence
in the global economy. More important, it would come closer to giving
countries such as China and India a share of IMF votes commensurate with
their new economic heft.
Meanwhile, pressures from the left have led to pervasive restrictions
on infrastructure projects financed through existing development banks,
which consequently have receded as funders, even as many developing
countries now see infrastructure finance as their principle external
funding need.
With US commitments unhonored and US-backed policies blocking the
kinds of finance other countries want to provide or receive through the
existing institutions, the way was clear for China to establish the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. There is room for argument about
the tactical approach that should have been taken once the initiative
was put forward. But the larger question now is one of strategy. Here
are three precepts that US leaders should keep in mind.
First, American leadership must have a bipartisan foundation at home,
be free from gross hypocrisy and be restrained in the pursuit of
self-interest. As long as one of our major parties is opposed to
essentially all trade agreements, and the other is resistant to funding
international organization, the US will not be in a position to shape
the global economic system.
Other countries are legitimately frustrated when US officials ask
them to adjust their policies — then insist that American state
regulators, independent agencies and far-reaching judicial actions are
beyond their control. This is especially true when many foreign
businesses assert that US actions raise real rule of law problems.
The legitimacy of US leadership depends on our resisting the
temptation to abuse it in pursuit of parochial interest, even when that
interest appears compelling. We cannot expect to maintain the dollar’s
primary role in the international system if we are too aggressive about
limiting its use in pursuit of particular security objectives.
Second, in global as well as domestic politics, the middle class
counts the most. It sometimes seems that the prevailing global agenda
combines elite concerns about matters such as intellectual property,
investment protection and regulatory harmonization with moral concerns
about global poverty and posterity, while offering little to those in
the middle. Approaches that do not serve the working class in industrial
countries (and rising urban populations in developing ones) are
unlikely to work out well in the long run.
Third, we may be headed into a world where capital is abundant and
deflationary pressures are substantial. Demand could be in short supply
for some time. In no big industrialized country do markets expect real
interest rates to be much above zero in 2020 or inflation targets to be
achieved. In the future, the priority must be promoting investment, not
imposing austerity. The present system places the onus of adjustment on
“borrowing” countries. The world now requires a symmetric system, with
pressure also placed on “surplus” countries.
These precepts are just a beginning, and many questions remain. There
are questions about global public goods, about acting with the speed
and clarity that the current era requires, about co-operation between
governmental and non-governmental actors, and much more. What is crucial
is that the events of the past month will be seen by future historians
not as the end of an era, but as a salutary wake up call.
The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary
Mission Statement: This blog reviews the news of the day in light of 242 years of American history. "Nationalism," a modern day pejorative, has been our country's politic throughout history, until 2008. Obama changed that narrative. Trump is seeking a return to our historical roots. Midknight Review supports this return to normality.
We not only have no influence in the Middle East, with Russia, the Egyptian Alliance, or the world's climate change community, we now no longer hold leadership in the global economic community. And to think, all of this failure is by design and "on purpose." Time to elect folks with a different purpose.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
The numbers speak for themselves:
ReplyDeletePew research - 28 nations surveryed:
2007: Confidence in US President Bush -
26% - confidence
69% - NO confidence
2013 - Confidence in US President Obama
55% - confidence
35% - no confidence
http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/07/18/chapter-2-global-opinion-of-barack-obama/
GAME OVER
The Pew poll for Bush was taken before the surge in Iraqa. Bush's alliance into Iraq had 38 countries involved, 27 of those countries in direct participation with the Americans. Obama's "60 member alliance" is pure fantasy, with fewer than 8 countries directly involved and Obama with the lowest confidence rating of any president, at any time, in the Middle East.
DeleteLook, to pretend that Bush was unpopular and Obama iks not, is simply bizarre. More than this, Bush was a leader, the nation had a place at the table, in terms of foreign affairs, the eonomy, and the fight against terror, none of which is the case with Obama. .
In 2008, the Pew Global Attitudes Project asked citizens of 24 countries whether they could count on Bush to do the right thing regarding foreign affairs.
Delete19 of the 24 countries had little or no confidence in the American president.
Surge or no surge, by any measure, the world has more confidence in Obama than Bush.
period. Face the fact.
http://www.pewglobal.org/files/legacy/263-11.gif
Absolute nonsense. But, first, what does Bush have anything to with the sad reality of "leading from behnd? " Only Pelosi's "we must pass it in order to know what's in it" is a more ridiculous idea. But the fact that Dems actually think these two ideas make sense, proves why you Marxists and the world of Marx, approve of Obama to the degree that it does. Keep in that Obama's Arab approval is around 15% and is worse that in the days of Bush. Keep in mind that Bush was not a Muslim apologist nor did he include Communists in his staff or nor did he support CAIR, the Muslim Brotherhood, Occupy, Louis Farrakhan, Bill Ayers nor does anyone consider him to a One World Utopian supporter of the United Nations. . . . . . . . so, of course, in the camp of Satan, Obama is more popular. Who gives a care? Not me.
DeleteThe worlds wants our wealth and Obama is giving it away like he knows what he is doing. The world hates the fact that we are the most exceptional nation in world history and Obama is doing all that he can to takes us down in terms of influence and military might. So, drop dead with your comparisons.
There is no respect where there is no fear . . . . and no one outside our country, is the least bit afraid of the Man-Child running around our White House.
It's not even close, Obama CRUSHES Bush in world wide approval. These are the facts. Watch Smithson squirm and name call ... "absolute nonsense" he says when the facts say exactly the opposite. Notice readers how Smithson ignores the facts when they don't support his view and how he tries to rationalize by name calling, conspiracy theories, and innuendo. That's is what anyone can see is 'absolute nonsense.'
Deletehttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/22/upshot/100000003008923.mobile.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1
You made your point. I will not keep publishing this drivel, comparing Bush to Obama. Bush got things done, and the world is in an absolute mess, because of Obama. 9 of 11 Asian countries greatly admire Obama, not knowing that the would sell them down the river, if China started flexing its military might, and I have Taiwan especially in mind. And what do Pew, CNN and the NY Times all have in common? When it comes to election politics, they will do and say anything to keep the Progressive Democrats in power. But, there are other polls that really say just the opposite, and those polls are the only that count. We call them "ELECTION!" You all have gotten your collective butt kick so hard, you look like a certain bell ringer at Notre Dame. Your polls are meaningless, And I really do not care what a godless, communist, theocratic/authoritarian world has to say about our democracy.
Delete