From my mailbox to you: Larry Sabato's opinion as to the race for the Senate:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball REPUBLICAN CHANCES OF SENATE TAKEOVER IMPROVING But Kansas race complicates matters By Kyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato Sabato's Crystal Ball

The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them. While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two. But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck -- combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program -- to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas. The Republicans are seeing some encouraging public polling in a couple of states President Obama won in 2012, suggesting their increasing potential for gains beyond the comfortable red-tinted territory where they are already positioned to make considerable inroads in November. Despite the uncertainty about the Sunflower State contest, the potential outcomes still mostly favor Republicans. About the best Democrats can hope for is a 50-50 split with Vice President Biden breaking the tie, a point we made several weeks ago when we upgraded our Senate outlook to a Republican gain of five to eight seats (the current Senate is 55-45 Democratic). A small one-to-three seat GOP Senate majority (51-49, 52-48, or 53-47) appears to be the likeliest outcome as of this writing and as the final month of the 2014 midterm campaign begins. Our Latest 2014 Senate Ratings Our Latest 2014 Governor Ratings Our Latest 2014 House Ratings Our Latest Rating Changes Blue state blues Perhaps the biggest change we’re seeing is that the Republicans now seem to have better odds in at least a couple of states President Obama won twice: Iowa and Colorado. The race between Rep. Bruce Braley (D) and state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has appeared to be a Toss-up for months, with a number of quality polls showing the candidates locked at about even. But that changed over the past few weeks, at least in the public polling. First, Quinnipiac showed Ernst up 50%-44% in mid-September, a poll that seemed like a big outlier at the time. But that finding was seconded over the weekend by the Des Moines Register poll, the gold standard of Iowa polling. Ernst was up six in that poll, too, although there were more undecideds: 44%-38%. We have long thought that Ernst’s folksiness could pay off here if Democratic attacks on some of the more conservative parts of her rhetoric and record did not pan out. With a month to go, she seems to be staying out of trouble, and the Republican lean of this year’s midterm combined with Braley’smuch-derided campaign suggests to us that Ernst really is leading here: We’re moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. It’s worth noting that Democrats argue the race is a tie, but even if that’s the case, it might be easier for Ernst to get to a plurality than Braley in this kind of environment. In Colorado, Rep. Cory Gardner (R) has been gaining in several polls, and now appears to have a tiny lead on Sen. Mark Udall (D) in a see-saw battle. However, there are two caveats about this race that we’ve made before that suggest caution against writing off Democrats in this state: Polling in the Centennial State fairly consistently underrates Democrats. For instance, in his 2010 victory, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) led only one of the final 18 public polls released in the race, and yet he triumphed on Election Day over Ken Buck (R). President Obama also significantly outperformed much of the polling there in 2012. The state now has all-mail voting, meaning that every voter will be mailed a ballot. This should help improve turnout generally, and perhaps especially among Democratic-leaning Hispanics and young people, which is also good for Udall. Still, it’s just difficult at this point to keep the race where we’ve had it, Leans Democratic. So we’re moving it to a Toss-up. One reason why Iowa Leans Republican now but Colorado is only a Toss-up even though the polling averages in both places are similar is that Iowa is an open seat -- Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) is retiring -- while Udall is the incumbent in Colorado. Incumbency matters, and Republicans have a poor recent history of beating Democratic Senate incumbents.