As of February of 2012, Obama's electoral count could be as low as 215. Romney's total could be as high as 323. "270" wins the presidency. This is a first for Romney and is Gallup's most recent survey of the 50 states.

<<<<  If Obama wins all states in which he rates 47% and higher and Romney wins all the states in which Obama rates 46% and lower,  it winds up being a landslide election for Romney.


Besides the information below,  all from Gallup,  we know that the white vote is down to 26% on a dynamic scale. In 2008,  the white vote for Obama total 43%.  Keep in mind that the Slickster won the first election by 7.5% of the popular votes.  Obama cannot win the election if this number, the white vote alone,  remains consistently low.  Mondale lost to Reagan in 1988 with a white vote of 31%  --  Mondale won just one state and the District of Columbia in that election. 

Also,  military surveys give Obama a 35 to 59 percent disapproval rating. representing a huge margin of disappointment within the military community.  Expect the Dems to try to repress that vote.   

Understand that Obama is running behind in all ethnic demographics including Blacks.   The Democrat enthusiasm levels are at history lows,  as well.  On Rasmussen,  those who "strongly approve" of Obama are averaging a nominal 27%,  down from 45% at the time of the '08 election.  

Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico.
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Updated for End Note:

The undecided vote has gone 80% against an incumbent President and Senator and 75% against the incumbent House member +/- 3% over the last 40 years, regardless of party affiliation. 

If that case holds in Novemeber, according to current RCP polling averages, Obama loses:
 NC 52% Romney 48% Obama
 MI 51% Romney 49% Obama
 NH 53% Romney 47% Obama
 FL 52% Romney, 48% Obama
 PA 51% Romney 49% Obama
 CO 51% Romney 49% Obama
 WI 53% Romney 47% Obama
 Ohio? 50% Romney 50% Obama
 and thus the presidency 51.5% Romney 48.5% Obama.
If history is an indicator.
Since a lot of these polls are sampling RVs instead of LVs they are  probably a bit more favorable to Obama right now.

"Jason" at National Journal, here.